QQ - do i have to call this down?

[Gunther S.]

I get something different. I think drawing to a king or queen is +ev. This analysis is very limited (going further gets a lot more complicated and I can't be bothered right now, which could account for the discrepancy. Or I made a mistake:

Villan caps utg. If we respect this person, then we're behind to any of his likely hands:

AA (3) = 4 outs (4 kings)
KK (6) = 4 outs (2 kings, 2 queens)
QQ (1) = split
AKs (3) = 3 outs (3 kings)

(4 * 9 + 3 * 3) / 12 = 3.75 outs (92% of the time : 8% split to QQ)

The only way we win in this position is if a K or Q comes,
but you still won't know if you hit...

8% of the time, you will split:
* Splitting to QQ pays 3.125BB

One of the following happens the remaining 92% of the time:
* Hitting your out by the river, pays 8.75BB, 15.5%
* Seeing a K or Q but losing, costs 2.5BB, 8.5%
* No K or Q by the river, costs 1.5BB = 76%

EV after the flop:

8% * 3.125BB + 92% * (15.5% * 8.75BB - 8.5% * 2.5BB - 76% * 1.5BB) = .25BB

This analysis ignores redraws, which reduces your calling ev. It also ignores the possibility that the villan is a little loose, which would raise the calling ev. There is definitly room for refinement here.

p.s. I read Lori's rant on this kind of stuff. Apologies. Sometimes I can't stop myself.

EDIT: I just realized that I neglected to account for the 1 to act behind. Poker is so complicated.

[milesdyson]

our set outs make KK a straight. we have more outs against top set than we do TPTK or KK - weird eh?

[Gunther S.]

Oh yeah! So I overestimated. We only have like 3.25 outs then. Bummer. Well, at least we can rule out calling then.