QQ - do i have to call this down?

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Somewhat relevant - an article on Raising to find out where we're at

I agree with Miles on this one. We already know where we're at (preflop has definied villian's hand to a very narrow range). We call because we have a gutshot - not because we might have the best hand.

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I don't think a preflop four-bet can narrow a villain's hand range that much. I honestly don't think a cap means much more than an open-raise preflop.

By just calling, you risk being raised by the guy behind you, and I don't think the implied odds are there. If you hit your straight, your hand is too transparent to expect extra calls. If you hit your set, there's a good likelihood someone else made their straight. Even if you hit and are good and get called, the callers can redraw.

You're either way ahead or way behind here. If you know you're behind, you shouldn't call the flop. If you don't know (and I contend that here, the hero doesn't know), then you need to find out which and play accordingly. Raise the bb out of the pot. Raise up the pressure on the villain. Raise your knowledge of whether this is your pot or not.

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I don't mean this sarcastically at all, but please give examples of hands we are ahead of that would raise UTG, Cap, and then bet into that flop.

[Vagrant]

I think calling the flop is the best move. Raising the flop might get you a free card for an extra shot to hit the draw if the player was tricky and likes the call the flop raise- check raise the turn play.

However the board is way too coordinated given the action to get tricky in my opinion.

You cant call that turn. I was very liberate and put villain on AJ+,KQ,1010+ and you have 8.7% equity. I ran some more testing and basically you have 6.5%-9% depending on hand ranges. The picture changes drastically if you include 99-. But pretty much any face card doesnt matter.

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You cant call that turn. I was very liberate and put villain on AJ+,KQ,1010+ and you have 8.7% equity. I ran some more testing and basically you have 6.5%-9% depending on hand ranges. The picture changes drastically if you include 99-. But pretty much any face card doesnt matter.

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Thank god someone finally did this.

For those guys advocating a bet\raise - I was going to get abusive but Miles does it so much better.

Even with loose preflop capping standards, the flop CALL is slim and more than likely -EV, especially with someone still to act behind you.

[rivered_again]

Thanks for the replies. I hate to say it, but Vex is the only one that wouldn't have gotten absolutely PUNK'D on this hand. Villain showed this:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I was going to give him credit for outplaying me and being a creative player, but soon after he capped the turn and river in a 3-way pot with 2 pair and lost to someone's obvious straight. Just another LAG. It's too bad I didn't have that knowledge before playing this hand, because I definitely would have raised and even capped the flop knowing he vastly overplays his hands.

I folded because my default read on low limit players is that they're average until proven otherwise. They've seen some WPT and know what the premium starting hands are. So if they cap preflop, it's a safe bet they have a premium hand. Is this really a bad assumption? I don't want to be results-oriented here. But since new players sit down all the time, this kind of situation does come up fairly often (not knowing how to interpret a new player's betting patterns).

[sean c]

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Thanks for the replies. I hate to say it, but Vex is the only one that wouldn't have gotten absolutely PUNK'D on this hand. Villain showed this:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

This alone doesn't make him a maniac, but soon after he capped the turn and river in a 3-way pot with 2 pair and lost to someone's obvious straight. It's too bad I didn't have that knowledge before playing this hand, because I definitely would have raised and even capped the flop knowing he vastly overplays his hands.

I folded because my default read on low limit players is that they're average until proven otherwise. They've seen some WPT and know what the premium starting hands are. So if they cap preflop, it's a safe bet they have a premium hand. Is this really a bad assumption? I don't want to be results-oriented here. But since new players sit down all the time, this kind of situation does come up fairly often (not knowing how to interpret a new player's betting patterns).

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Thats why you hear "without a read i would call down" or "against an unknown i raise" or whatever alot on these forums. This hand is not an example of that. Thinking it is is results oriented.

[rivered_again]

Exactly. I don't mean to encourage results-oriented thinking. I still think this a fluke occurance of me actually being ahead in the hand. I showed villain's hand for closure.

Vex, I read your post and applied it to a KK hand that was capped preflop. An ace flopped and I check-raised "to put pressure on" and the result was that I got [different] villain to call down AK. I'm not so sure your approach is that applicable to low limits...

[milesdyson]

wow, why on earth would you check raise an A-high flop with KK? i guess this requires some thinking, but really, i encourage you to get that results-oriented brain working. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Gunther S.]

I get something different. I think drawing to a king or queen is +ev. This analysis is very limited (going further gets a lot more complicated and I can't be bothered right now, which could account for the discrepancy. Or I made a mistake:

Villan caps utg. If we respect this person, then we're behind to any of his likely hands:

AA (3) = 4 outs (4 kings)
KK (6) = 4 outs (2 kings, 2 queens)
QQ (1) = split
AKs (3) = 3 outs (3 kings)

(4 * 9 + 3 * 3) / 12 = 3.75 outs (92% of the time : 8% split to QQ)

The only way we win in this position is if a K or Q comes,
but you still won't know if you hit...

8% of the time, you will split:
* Splitting to QQ pays 3.125BB

One of the following happens the remaining 92% of the time:
* Hitting your out by the river, pays 8.75BB, 15.5%
* Seeing a K or Q but losing, costs 2.5BB, 8.5%
* No K or Q by the river, costs 1.5BB = 76%

EV after the flop:

8% * 3.125BB + 92% * (15.5% * 8.75BB - 8.5% * 2.5BB - 76% * 1.5BB) = .25BB

This analysis ignores redraws, which reduces your calling ev. It also ignores the possibility that the villan is a little loose, which would raise the calling ev. There is definitly room for refinement here.

p.s. I read Lori's rant on this kind of stuff. Apologies. Sometimes I can't stop myself.

EDIT: I just realized that I neglected to account for the 1 to act behind. Poker is so complicated.

[milesdyson]

our set outs make KK a straight. we have more outs against top set than we do TPTK or KK - weird eh?