Unusual AKo hand, 30-60

Josh W · #1 11-11-2005, 12:16 PM

The flop bet, as I said, is hugely debatable, maybe. I'm not sure that I can provide an adequate argument FOR the bet. I'll talk about it later tonight, maybe.

The river fold is easier to explain. I tried putting my opponents on hands. And, well, I ran out of aces in the deck. If I just had to overcall, I could do it, but by having to over-overcall, well, that meant that UTG couldn't have an ace. It's pretty clear that HJ and Button both have big aces, and there's probably about 25% chance I'm chopping at best with button.

But the problem is UTG...what does he have? Unless he is stone cone bluffing into a field of four when the worst possible card for him comes on the river (which I think he does way less than 1 outta 20 times, probably more like 1 outta 50 times), I'm hosed.

It's funny that everybody so far as criticized the river fold, but nobody has put anybody on a hand yet.

I probably need to have the best hand here at least 10% of the time to justify a call (because I'll be chopping a decent chunk of the time). And even if I was ahead this time, I don't think I'm ahead 10% of the time.

I tried putting them on hands, and I ran out of aces.

Josh

Philuva · #2 11-11-2005, 12:23 PM

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I tried putting them on hands, and I ran out of aces.

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So UTG has a set or middle two pair and decided to try and CR the turn even through no one showed they liked that flop?

I have a hard time putting UTG on a hand to be honest, but I don't think it really matters because you are ahead of the other two guys enough here given their passiveness throughout the hand. Plus, given the utg's check on the turn I think you have an easy call in a large pot with TPTK.

Josh W · #3 11-11-2005, 01:12 PM

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So UTG has a set or middle two pair and decided to try and CR the turn even through no one showed they liked that flop?

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If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.

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I have a hard time putting UTG on a hand to be honest, but I don't think it really matters because you are ahead of the other two guys enough here given their passiveness throughout the hand.

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Sure, I definitely have the other two beat. I was going to checkraise the river if one of those bet. We agree on that.

What we DISagree on is the merits of being second best. Saying what UTG has doesn't matter because I can beat the other two is silly.

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Plus, given the utg's check on the turn I think you have an easy call in a large pot with TPTK.

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Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.

Josh

AceHigh · #4 11-11-2005, 01:50 PM

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If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.

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OK, but they already called 2 cold on the flop, now they are reluctant to call 1 big bet on the turn?

Doesn't utg want to bet the turn if they are drawing dead because they will likely call a bet on turn while they are "drawing" but be reluctant to call a bet with bare Ace on the river. You need the parlay of them to be drawing dead and to make there hand on the river for it to be break even with betting the turn don't you?

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Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.

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He doesn't have to be bluffing, he just has to have a worse hand than you. There's no way utg can have Ahxh? Couldn't utg have been raising the flop trying to clean up his Ace outs, then checking the turn to draw as cheaply as possible?

Josh W · #5 11-11-2005, 02:29 PM

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If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.

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OK, but they already called 2 cold on the flop, now they are reluctant to call 1 big bet on the turn?

Doesn't utg want to bet the turn if they are drawing dead because they will likely call a bet on turn while they are "drawing" but be reluctant to call a bet with bare Ace on the river. You need the parlay of them to be drawing dead and to make there hand on the river for it to be break even with betting the turn don't you?

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Well, it's not an exact science. But people 'take one off' on the flop with naked overcards A WHOLE LOT MORE than they do on the turn. If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.

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Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.

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He doesn't have to be bluffing, he just has to have a worse hand than you. There's no way utg can have Ahxh?

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I think way less than 1% of the time, unless his "x" is the non-heart card on the flop. And even that is almost impossible. This is simply because there are only 4 aces in the deck. I've got one (100% certain), the board has one (100% certain), the button has one (over 99.9% certain) and the highjack has one (over 95% certain). I think that '95' for the highjack is also about 99.

So, if he doesn't have at least an ace, and has a hand worse than me, I call that bluffing. Perhaps he dillusionally betting K9 on the river, not thinking its a bluff. But I put that in the "less than 10% chance that he bluffs the river" category (even if he doesn't call it a bluff).

Josh

AceHigh · #6 11-11-2005, 05:39 PM

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If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.

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This analysis is terrible. He raises his impossibly strong hand on the flop, then checks it on the turn (cuz he "knows" you will call on the flop but not the turn, that's a special kind of fish that will call at 7:1 and fold at 11:1, then call the river)? Maybe, but that's the least likely scenario. What about the flush draw, just let him see the river for free?

I'm sure you posted this hand to show us how brilliant you are, so why don't you post the results, because your arguements don't seem logical to me. And that's why I don't think it's a good river fold.

Josh W · #7 11-11-2005, 06:47 PM

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If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.

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This analysis is terrible. He raises his impossibly strong hand on the flop, then checks it on the turn?

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The analysis is terrible only if you dislike winning.

People who raise preflop don't like folding in huge pots on the flop. People never (or, more accurately, rarely) think of themselves as drawing dead on the flop. However, people with no pair and no draw often find themselves drawing dead on the turn. Hence, people like to call more on the flop than on the turn. I'm startled that this is new information to you.

Many people adopt the (when flopping a monster) BetFlopCheckTurnBetRiver philosophy. I know Andy Fox has said he does this when flopping quads. I know tons o' people who do it live and online, I do it, etc. When you consider all the possibilities, I think you'll see that this is how you maximize profit. Forcing drawing dead opponents out on the turn doesn't help the bottom line. See, people don't like calling the turn drawing dead.

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I'm sure you posted this hand to show us how brilliant you are, so why don't you post the results, because your arguements don't seem logical to me.

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Wow, get indignant.

As I've said in this thread, I often post hands like this to find the error in my thinking. So far, except for the one person who said "I think UTG bluffs more than 10% of the time on the river", nobody has really pointed out errors in my thinking (and as I told him, we agree to disagree). I recently posted a hand where I jammed w/ KK on a raggedy board against 3 opponents, then checked when a Jack hit the river, thinking it was likely an opponent had JJ. As it turns out, they had TT and QQ. When somebody presented the math to show me the error in my ways, I quickly admitted as so.

Similarly, there's a good chance I misplayed this. There's a good chance I layed down the winner in a 13BB pot. That would be horrible. But if it's the right thing to do, it would be acceptable.

I'm waiting for somebody to provide a compelling argument that either:

a.) UTG bluffs more than 10% of the time, or
b.) HJ and Button don't have an Ace (and even then it's sketchy, because that only allows that UTG has an ace, and that may mean two pair, so just because the late players don't have an ace doesn't mean I should always call).

If (a) or (b) doesn't get shown, I played it right (regardless of results).

Josh

SA125 · #8 11-11-2005, 12:41 PM

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UTG (38/14) limps.......Flop comes 962, two hearts.....I lead out. UTG raises..
Turn is an offsuit ten. I check, and it gets checked around. Weird. Maybe UTG has hearts, and I'm really ahead here.

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I was trying to do the hands and could only come with 78s for UTG. I could see him playing it the same way and going for turn c/r. Maybe I'm wrong, but 38/14's do things like that.

Josh W · #9 11-11-2005, 01:14 PM

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UTG (38/14) limps.......Flop comes 962, two hearts.....I lead out. UTG raises..
Turn is an offsuit ten. I check, and it gets checked around. Weird. Maybe UTG has hearts, and I'm really ahead here.

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I was trying to do the hands and could only come with 78s for UTG. I could see him playing it the same way and going for turn c/r. Maybe I'm wrong, but 38/14's do things like that.

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As I just mentioned in my response to Philuva....a turn check is not necessarily looking to checkraise. It could easily be looking to allow a drawing dead hand (i.e. AK AQ AJ) to 'catch up' on the river. Betting the turn with the nuts (or two pair or set or whatever) will get a lot of these hands to fold, which is disasterous.

Josh

Duke · #10 11-11-2005, 12:47 PM

You didn't run out of tens and pairs in a huge pot from guys thinking that seeing a showdown is basically mandatory.

The problem is that you were going to call UTG, and then 2 guys basically tell you that you have them beat and add money to the pot, and then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did. No, the callers don't need aces when the pot is this big. There's nothing to run out of. And I've seen guys bet 6 high into a field of 5 when an ace hit since it -is- a "scare card."

~D