#1
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Value bet or induce a bluff?
Button has solid looking stats assuming they're from shorthanded play (24/18). MP is completely unknown and it's his first hand at the table.
Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $20. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP calls. Flop: (10.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks. Turn: (5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, Button folds. River: (7.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero asks the question in the title |
#2
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Re: Value bet or induce a bluff?
Induce bluff
Thats assuming an unknown who plays decent. I think he has a weak ace or FD, if he has an unlikely king we could split but are probably beat. He aint calling with a nine and aint folding an ace either. |
#3
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Re: Value bet or induce a bluff?
I think the sum of:
1. weaker kings (lots of uknowns play K2 etc.) that won't value bet 2. flush draws that paired the 9 or T (Q9, J9 etc.) and will call 3. flopped gutshot (which all paired) or pair of 9s that will call. 4. and aces that will value bet if checked to is greater than: 1. The amount of flush draws that will bluff but would not call a value bet 2. The amount of weak aces or otherwise better hands (KQ) that checks through. Thus I'd bet. I don't play 20/40, but I know many unknowns in 10/20 play a wide range of weaker hands that are paired here and would pay off, despite the A and K on board. |
#4
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Re: Value bet or induce a bluff?
[ QUOTE ]
1. weaker kings (lots of uknowns play K2 etc.) that won't value bet 2. flush draws that paired the 9 or T (Q9, J9 etc.) and will call 3. flopped gutshot (which all paired) or pair of 9s that will call. 4. and aces that will value bet if checked to [/ QUOTE ] You lose a bet against (4) no matter which option you pick, so I don't understand why they are getting weighed on the side of making a bet right. |
#5
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Re: Value bet or induce a bluff?
i meant that a bet is neutral against them. I guess I shouldn't have included it on side or another. I just thought it was important to point out that fearing an ace isn't an issue unless it is against someone who will check behind a weak ace.
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#6
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Re: Value bet or induce a bluff?
I'd bet this- MP's range is pretty wide here and I'd expect enough calldowns from worse kings, tens, and even nines to outweigh the times he bluffs a busted draw.
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#7
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Re: Value bet or induce a bluff?
I basically agree with lmn's post. I checked, but I'm pretty sure that was bad. Thanks guys.
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#8
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Re: Value bet or induce a bluff?
I can see why you checked. During the heat of battle (especially playing multiple tables) I probably would have checked too. However, after further thought, betting seems to be clearly correct for all the reasons already given in this thread.
I think more interesting than the river is how you play the hand if the button bets the flop. thoughts? |
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