Some interesting statistics on ROI variance

[raptor517]

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Barely, unless he didn't sleep, or is including Friday night.

20-tabling, sure, but I don't think there's many people that do that, other than raptor.

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i know of like 4 people now that do it, and im sure there are others.. though i doubt it is approaching the double digits. i dont really do it any more as it requires an insane amount of concentration that cant be held for long periods of time. i dont recommend it to anyone.

also.. i havent been playing much poker at all, as my hours are consumed by being a college student in pledgeship. soon though.. it will all be over.. and i should be able to play 40ish hours a week. im looking forward to making money again.. holla

what I dedicate as a "weekend" is not limited to Sat/Sun.

the results I can assure are valid, whether you find them useful or not.

[multifast1]

When I first read it I assumed "from one weekend to the next" meant he was comparing one weeks worth of playing to the next weeks.

He makes some great points to keep in mind but the variance of 100 games within the 700 or 750 blocks is totally meaningless... unless you consider 100 game sample size to be significant. Now maybe you should look at the variance of any 750 game block within a set of say 5000.

I think you main point I took is that it's near impossible to tell if any adjustments you make are actually working, or if it's due to dumb luck. Even 750 games later you still can't be sure if your increased ROI is due to you getting better or stumbling over a luckbox.. Humbling thought indeed.

great question, because variance does appear to discriminate by buy-in. Actually, the lower buyins just dictate a style of play that is more prone to variance, I think. I think there are more +EV opportunities that have greater inherent variance in the 11's than in the 50's. For example, calling QQ to two pushes in level 1 is more +EV in the 11's (and the situation occurs more frequently as well). I'd be curious whether other people find this to be true.

This sample is from the 11's.

variance is wins and losses am I right?

[citanul]

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variance is wins and losses am I right?

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variance is neither wins and losses nor "the difference between two things," (as it is being used by the original poster) in statistics.

c

[sofere]

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what does:

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Variance within any given 100-game sample

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mean?

c

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This just means that if you take any sample of 100 consecutive tournaments from within the 700 (or 750) the number is the differrence between the group with the highest ROI and lowest ROI.

For example, in the 750-sng weekend there was a run of 100 tournies with an ROI of +41%, and a 100-sng run with an ROI of -35%, thus the variance within any sample of 100 sngs was 76%

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Thats the Range of ROI, not the variance.

[Nicholasp27]

sample variance is the sum of the square of the differences from the mean of each data point in the sample divided by n-1

range is the highest data point minus the lowest data point

std deviation is the square root of variance


to find roi variance in your stats:

1) determine roi for each set of 100 sngs
2) add up all of these rois and divide by number of sets of 100...this is your mean
3) subtract each roi from the mean separately
4) square each of these differences
5) sum these squares from #4
6) divide answer in #5 by n-1, where n is # of sets of 100

[citanul]

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sample variance is the sum of the square of the differences from the mean of each data point in the sample divided by n-1

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and then, of course, when you're done doing that calculation, you can be left with a number that is totally meaningless to you, but at least it will actually be variance!

c