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#11
11-07-2005, 09:52 PM
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Re: If I played this right, why do I feel like a fish?
Split is the reason. It nearly cuts our odds in half since BB's raising an Ax and button rivering a pair or having something like a PP with a heart is the (already unlikely) parlay we are hoping for if we call a river where our Jack does play. Since it doesn't, we are basically playing for a split at best but still losing to a Q or flush the hefty majority of the time.
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#12
11-07-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: If I played this right, why do I feel like a fish?
[ QUOTE ]
I actually don't mind calling the river closing the action. LAG could be raising a Queen on the turn, but also a flush draw or an Ace you have outkicked are very possible too. [/ QUOTE ] The hero can't outkick anyone. He's playing the naked ace. The hero is either splitting or losing. Even if we assume a 3 way split, the hero is getting 4:1 on his call. I'd think the hero gets at least 1/3 of the pot 20%. No veteran posters seem to be leaning that way though, so I must be overestimating...?
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#13
11-07-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: If I played this right, why do I feel like a fish?
He can't fold this turn because he's getting 9.5:1 to try to fill up and wins at least another BB if he does, probably 2. There is also some chance his hand is good.
I personally can't make these folds to these opponents. A 55/25/1.5 guy is capable of raising any Ax on the turn, or even raising garbage to bluff the flush. These people will wait until the turn to raise a 4 sometimes. I think you are ahead here at least 20% of the time. That means calling the river, too. Overcalling? I don't know... I show it down, though. I want to reduce my WTSD%, but I can't do it with hands like this against opponents like this. Make button a 23/17/2.2 and I like the fold. He's got at least a Q. J
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#15
11-07-2005, 10:04 PM
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Re: If I played this right, why do I feel like a fish?
I think everyone is underestimating the button's turn call. Yeah he's bad so that adds a few hands to his range, but you must take into account that he would definitely play a Q this way, definitely play an Ace this way, and probably play a flush this way (afraid of better hands in all cases). Sure he could have rivered a pair of Jacks with the Jh or have a PP with a heart or something, but these are much rarer than the aforementioned possibilities. Hero beating him is the rare exception, not the rule, and the same goes for BB. I'm not even sure we should call in this spot when the river is below a Jack, because we need such a parlay to be good (someone less lazy would have to run numeros to answer this).
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#16
11-07-2005, 10:06 PM
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Re: If I played this right, why do I feel like a fish?
[ QUOTE ]
we are basically playing for a split at best but still losing to a Q or flush the hefty majority of the time. [/ QUOTE ] More than 4 in 5? A 3 way split sends 4BB to the Hero, which is the worst case when the hero still makes $$. His call closes the betting. Do we think hero is completely beat (no split) 80% of the time? The possibility of a split seems better than 20%.
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#17
11-07-2005, 10:09 PM
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Re: If I played this right, why do I feel like a fish?
[ QUOTE ]
The possibility of a split seems better than 20%. [/ QUOTE ] If you run the numbers of all the possible combinations I can almost assure you it won't be even close to that.
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