|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Slow play set on a dangerous flop?
[ QUOTE ]
How am I to come to the conclusion that it is unlikely to be raised in the second round of a 33? Generally, players at 33's understand the value of basic aggressiveness. I would contend (though I have no data to support this contention, it's just a guess) that something in the vicinity of 60% of preflops are raised at a 33. So...because there have been 2 folds in front of our Hero and 2 players have been eliminated, let's assume there is only a 50% likelihood that this pot will be raised PF. Let's further assume that he makes a call like the one described in the OP 100 times. [/ QUOTE ] It depends on the texture of the game, and how opponents are reacting to you specifically. In many game textures, I wouldn't consider it, but sometimes the tables can be fairly passive. [ QUOTE ] 50 of those times, there will be a preflop raise and Hero will fold, leaving his t30 on the table (Net: -t1500) [/ QUOTE ] Is there a 50% chance? Depends on the table, some will be 75%, some will be 25%. One size does not fit all. Further, if they only minraise, I'm calling, any more would depend on the opponent. Some opponents define their hands pretty well with their raises, and if you have a good idea what they have, you can have a better idea if the flop hits them. Calling a raise is very opponent, and raise size dependent. [ QUOTE ] Of the 50 times he sees a flop, he will not flop a set 88.2% of the time, or 44 of those times...we'll assume Hero will not play poorly on any of those flops and will simply fold his small pair when he doesn't flop a set (Net: -t1320) [/ QUOTE ] That is your assumption, not mine. I disagree. Most of the time your opponents are on big cards, and if it comes small you are probably ahead. Of course many times you will have to fold when you miss your set, but not every time, that is playing way too scared. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Slow play set on a dangerous flop?
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on the texture of the game, and how opponents are reacting to you specifically. In many game textures, I wouldn't consider it, but sometimes the tables can be fairly passive. Is there a 50% chance? Depends on the table, some will be 75%, some will be 25%. One size does not fit all. Further, if they only minraise, I'm calling, any more would depend on the opponent. Some opponents define their hands pretty well with their raises, and if you have a good idea what they have, you can have a better idea if the flop hits them. Calling a raise is very opponent, and raise size dependent. That is your assumption, not mine. I disagree. Most of the time your opponents are on big cards, and if it comes small you are probably ahead. Of course many times you will have to fold when you miss your set, but not every time, that is playing way too scared. [/ QUOTE ] Look, the only time other than flopping a set that I'm thinking too seriously about doing anything with my pair of fives on Level 2 FROM EARLY POSITION is when my fives are overcards (very, very rare and STILL a very precarious situation). Sure, if the flop comes 6-high, I might throw out a bet...win a few lose a few. But just because a flop comes "small" in an unraised pot does not mean your opponents are on high cards and have missed. An unraised pot that's 6, 7, 8 high can be a very dangerous thing to your fives (people regularly limp things like A7 and even K8s, J9, etc.)...not to mention the fact that it's not at ALL unreasonable that someone limps with something like 66 behind you. Again, you're out of position...playing fives for other than set value is dangerous. Perhaps if you're an excellent post-flop player then you can garner a small edge by doing it...but if you know proper push/fold strategy, I'll still maintain that by pushing a potential small edge you are going to be sacrificing spots later in tourneys where you have much greater edges. Like I said, perhaps (if you are a serious-level postflop player) +tEV, but probably -$EV for all but the very best of players. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Slow play set on a dangerous flop?
The limp is okay, but yeah, I do agree it takes some post flop skill to be able to play, especially if you're raised from late position. I sometimes do play 5's from here. It depends on the table.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Slow play set on a dangerous flop?
[ QUOTE ]
The limp is okay, but yeah, I do agree it takes some post flop skill to be able to play, especially if you're raised from late position. I sometimes do play 5's from here. It depends on how much I've had to drink . [/ QUOTE ] |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Slow play set on a dangerous flop?
Heh.. well, that's true to an extent yes. But really at the $55s it's not so bad to limp in because of the larger starting stacks (at Party, at any rate).
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Slow play set on a dangerous flop?
Yes, you must play well post-flop to limp these, and only do it under the correct table conditions. Of course in the early levels like this, I'm always looking to make my money post-flop. |
|
|