Set theory

[Tony.T]

"An opponent needs to have 20 times the raise behind him
with you covering him to call with any pair to catch a set"

In this situation it is the opponent who is raising and you calling. How aggresive the opponent is and how likely he/she is to go broke with AK or AA matters alot, but how
does it affect the rule? (20 times bla bla)


Can anyone explain this theory and the numbers behind it for me?


Thanks!


Tony

[cracker9521]

I don't know where you're getting the 20x usually its considered the 5% 10% rule though. Since you are about 1 in 7.5 to flop a set or better your opponent would need 7.5x the amount of the bet for it to be break even if you flop a set and stack him each time you do. However you want a little more than that to show a profit and of course sometimes you lose with your sets so generally speaking 10% of the effective stacks should be the most you can profitably call if only with the hopes of hitting a set and stacking your opponent. Of course if they have 20x that is a more ideal situation.

[FlyingStart]

I have been having much trouble lately getting my sets payed of at the 100s and 200s at pokerroom. I think that this is a combination of people being more alert to sets and that people raise big cards too which misses 66% of the time. However they still most often make contiuation bets when they miss. So you are folding your pocket fives just about everytime, and the times you do play back with a set your opponent may fold two big cards or pehaps something like TT on a K94r board. And some people, believe it or not, is capable of laying down an overpair.

However when it is 10% of your stack to you there has often been a reraise or a big raise making it much more likely that someone has a big pair making a call good (considering also the current pot-odds).

With the standard raises tho of 5% of your stack you have better implied odds but will suffer from laying down the best hand quite alot. I think therefore you should play back at the preflop raiser (this will also help you get action on your sets)) from time to time, especially if he has a wide range preflop and is known to make continuation bets.

[Hattifnatt]

The 5-10 rule is good. But I call pretty often if its more than 10% of the stack with a pair below 5s if I have position and a good read on the opponent and I know he will raise with 2 high cards as well as a pair.

But if you ONLY play for set-value its not a good idea to call with more than 8% of your effective stack or so IMO.