#11
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Re: Draws Galore
[ QUOTE ]
you don't think there's a good chance villan is f.o.s. here and is making a move (maybe with a draw), against what he might view as a steal attempt? i think a bet on the turn here is basically a freeroll a good % of the time. [/ QUOTE ] What draw could villian have that would fold to a turn bet? I think you have very little fold equity here. |
#12
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Re: Draws Galore
i'd like to raise, but i don't think i could fold to a 3-bet.
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#13
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Re: Draws Galore
I'd just call. If he's playing well, he'll fold the hands you beat and 3-bet the hands you lose to.
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#14
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Re: Draws Galore
[ QUOTE ]
Villian has been playing very TAGish and would classify him as playing much like a typical 2+2er [/ QUOTE ] Call. |
#15
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Re: Draws Galore
[ QUOTE ]
He might be FOS, but I'm giving just a little more credence to the fact that he's called an UTG raise. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate betting the turn, it really depends on a more solid read of villan though. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with Brett. We should take the free card. Usually when opponents check-raise they have some kind of real hand; most players generally don't check-raise with draws. Also, in short-handed games, particularly when the pot gets heads-up, most players don't check-raise the flop with hands they intend to fold. We three-bet the flop because we had a ton of equity with our superdraw, but one of the auxiliary effects was to give us the option, if desired, of taking a free card on the turn. We should probably do it. |
#16
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Re: Draws Galore
Nice hand, call the river. Raising would be spewing imo, it's very likely he has 2-pair. If not, he is probably folding worse hands, other than specifically weaker aces, which is unlikely, so we're not getting value here that often by raising.
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#17
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Re: Draws Galore
I don't really like a raise here. I think if villain plays like a 2+2er he'll be able to fold to a raise with anything less than an A. A significant portion of the time he has two pair or better (either aces up or a missed turn check-raise). We don't have that great a kicker, so a river raise is only ideal against hands like A7-A2, which seem very, very unlikely based on the flop action.
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#18
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Re: Draws Galore
[ QUOTE ]
i'd like to raise, but i don't think i could fold to a 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] OK, its a super easy fold to a three bet. But I tend to agree with everyone who says that he's not calling with anything we beat. So, I retract my earlier vote for "raise." |
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