Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Poker Discussion > Poker Theory
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #3  
Old 11-02-2005, 08:26 PM
Precept2 Precept2 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 21
Default Re: What are the odds on this: 3 sets and a str8 on the flop.

I've seen a similar hand in a live tourney at the Trop in AC that I eventually won. 12 left in tourney, so we're playing 6-handed.

Pre-flop:
UTG (which is me) has 66 and raises
SB has 22 and calls
BB has 33 and calls

Flop comes 6-3-2 Rainbow.
I bet.
SB Calls.
BB raises all-in.
I call.
SB folds & shows his trip dueces. I was pissed, because I should have taken them both out.

Anyway, here's the math:

The probability you flop a set is about .12 (which is about 7.2-to-1).

3 people flopping sets is (.12)(.12)(.12)=0.001728

You need 8 of the remaining 50 cards. Whichever one you get, you need 4 of the remaining 49 cards.

The Probability of flopping the 2-gut straight is (8/50)(4/49)=.013

The Probability of 3 people flopping sets & a 2-gut straight is (.12)(.12)(.12)(.013)=.00002351

If you didn't notice, I'm a math teacher who just happens to teach Probability & Statistics. I'm pretty sure those numbers are correct (even though they've been rounded slightly).
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, vBulletin Solutions Inc.