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#3
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I've seen a similar hand in a live tourney at the Trop in AC that I eventually won. 12 left in tourney, so we're playing 6-handed.
Pre-flop: UTG (which is me) has 66 and raises SB has 22 and calls BB has 33 and calls Flop comes 6-3-2 Rainbow. I bet. SB Calls. BB raises all-in. I call. SB folds & shows his trip dueces. I was pissed, because I should have taken them both out. Anyway, here's the math: The probability you flop a set is about .12 (which is about 7.2-to-1). 3 people flopping sets is (.12)(.12)(.12)=0.001728 You need 8 of the remaining 50 cards. Whichever one you get, you need 4 of the remaining 49 cards. The Probability of flopping the 2-gut straight is (8/50)(4/49)=.013 The Probability of 3 people flopping sets & a 2-gut straight is (.12)(.12)(.12)(.013)=.00002351 If you didn't notice, I'm a math teacher who just happens to teach Probability & Statistics. I'm pretty sure those numbers are correct (even though they've been rounded slightly). |
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