AQo, Standard...I Think

[Gunther S.]

That flop was an easy call for anyone drawing to a flush. The only way to make those people pay for their draw is on the turn--although that might not be possible after the flop cap, have to do the math. I think you have to raise the turn, as you're only losing to AA or 88 (QQ should have to have raised pf) and that 6 is helping nobody. I looks like the SB is on a draw, so the only way to squeeze value out of the river would be to raise. The only question to answer then is are you ahead more than 50% of the time?

[car ramrod]

raise the turn, if 3bet, call, fold river ui.

[Weatherhead03]

Give one more raise on the turn, call down if 3-bet.

grunching...

I'd probably play it the exact same way. His range of hands limping UTG might be AQ?,AJ,KQ, JJ-88. His 3-bet on the flop is key, because he must figure you for at least TPTK, to have it beat, he has to have 88. I'm not sure we need to get this to showdown, if we know we're beat. If we bet/call the turn and check/fold the river (am I insane?) we would be saving a bet, knowing that he would be showing us 88 most of the time. I guess the question is, are we expecting him to either a) bluff on the river with JJ-99 or b) show us KQ or AQ often enough to make check/call profitable. I just don't see this happening with TAG vs. TAG.

[nomadtla]

*grunch*
I acctually like the turn call as it may get another bet from SB. I think I raise that river though. I think most of the hands that would beat you from at Tag in UTG would have been raised. I'm thinking in the range of AJ-A9 posibly suited). 88 is the only hand I wory about here given your read on him. But there are only 3 combinations of 88 compared to the many A combinations I could see here. I think I raise/call this river.

This was another one of my unlucky draws yesterday. I lost 5-6 BIG pots with a strong second best hand. Of course, he had the 88. I was almost certain but not certain enough to fold.

[detruncate]

UTG is TAG. A8 and 88 and flush/straight draws are most likely on the flop -- he obviously can't have hit TP and be drawing to a flush, but JTs and KTs (and maybe KJs) are possibilities.

It seems less likely that he's just on a draw when he bets the turn after our flop cap -- a flush + straight draw is still possible, but we're not going anywhere and it's not for value so we probably get a check from him most of the time. However, there are still 6 combos of A8 and 3 of 88 and I can see him playing both hands this way.

I stick in another raise on the turn -- the added chance that he's on a draw makes me want to do it now rather than later, and SB has already coldcalled twice so there's at least some reason to suspect that he has a hand he likes well enough to see a river with (again, draws are more likely to call on the turn).

I call down if 3-bet -- we're likely drawing vs 88, but there's still a chance that an aggressive opponent will be pushing hard with a hand we're ahead of.