(Stars $105+9 turbo) How do you play it here?

[Metnut]

Down to 5 handed, the blinds are at 200/400 ante 25. I'm average stacked with about 2600 on the BB, the Sb had about 1100, UTG has about 2500, mid position has about 1500, and the button is the big stack with a little over 4K.

The hand gets folded to the button (big stack, has about 4100 or so), who raises the mininum up to 800. He has been playing mostly tight, although stealing/raising about once every two orbits. Only real read is that earlier in the tourney he overbet QQ huge preflop. I have A8o in the BB. I don't believe my table image is either loose or tight. I push. Thoughts?

[schwza]

this is a close one. villain will be getting better than 2:1, and it sounds like he'll have at least some kind of hand, so i'd be surprised if you win the pot without a showdown. with the chip stacks, even though the pot odds are nice if he calls, you're not that psyched about playing as a 60-40 favorite, and there's a reasonable chance it's going to be worse or much worse. it's close, but i'd fold. AT i'd push for sure, mabye A9.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Down to 5 handed, the blinds are at 200/400 ante 25. I'm average stacked with about 2600 on the BB, the Sb had about 1100, UTG has about 2500, mid position has about 1500, and the button is the big stack with a little over 4K.

The hand gets folded to the button (big stack, has about 4100 or so), who raises the mininum up to 800. He has been playing mostly tight, although stealing/raising about once every two orbits. Only real read is that earlier in the tourney he overbet QQ huge preflop. I have A8o in the BB. I don't believe my table image is either loose or tight. I push. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem with your lone read is that it really doesnt apply here. Many will overbet their big hands when the blinds are low and min raise those same hands later when the blinds are huge. Your FE here isnt that good and I think button would have to be raising any 2 here to lay down a 2-1 call. If you are stealing with ease I would lay this down. I dont play the 100s but I do play turbos in general and I would fold this most of the time unless BSstack had been minraising often (or just a couple of time previously).

p

[bennies]

I push.

It took me a while to decide but two things won me over.
1) He's on the button.
2) Stack sizes are pretty good for this. I don't think he will feel pot committed and risk his chip lead for another 1800 without a very good hand.


.... I think is you could almost do this with any two cards, not quite, but it's close.

[Metnut]

I don't know... I think you guys are under-rating his folding equity here. If he is doing this with KJ, KQ, 89s, or even a pair like 55 or less, I don't think hes gonna call, if he loses he is gonna go from big stack to pretty short with huge blinds coming right into him. We can hope he isn't slowplaying a monster since we've seen him go pretty hard with QQ last time (he actually had AA, but lets forget about that for this discussion. I think their is typically a lot of FE here on the bubble.

[pooh74]

We can hope he isn't slowplaying a monster since we've seen him go pretty hard with QQ last time

read my reply again...dont compare the two bc they are different blind levels.

[Metnut]

[ QUOTE ]
We can hope he isn't slowplaying a monster since we've seen him go pretty hard with QQ last time

read my reply again...dont compare the two bc they are different blind levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, you are right about the two blind levels being different. The QQ hand was at 25/50, and there was an early position opener, a short stack caller and then he pushed over that for like another 1000, it seemed like a really hard play and not indicitive of someone who would do something tricky with a monster (obviously that wasn't the case). Even if good players vary the play up at later levels, this information has to be at least worth something doesn't it?