#21
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What I did.
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Party 30-60. All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls. Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call. Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too. Bet, raise, call. River 8d. Checkraise or bet out? Thanks, Josh [/ QUOTE ] I checked. |
#22
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Re: What I did.
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I checked. [/ QUOTE ] Based on your analysis of your opponent's hand, your thinking is that he's on a busted draw and the only bet you're getting out of him on the river is from a bluff? |
#23
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
wow i think check-calling after the guy raises the flop is okay. as for the river i think you should bet/reraise but that's only cause i think the guy has the A he's been representing, which apparently you didnt since you kept calling him down.
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#24
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
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The key to reading hands, and poker in general, is realizing it's not black and white. Everything is probabilities. Not just "the probability of flopping a set" probabilities, but "what is the chance he plays this hand that way" probabilities. You don't want to get locked into "He must have XX" type of thinking. It's better to have a "He **could** have XX" thinking. In my previous post, I talk about what he'd LIKELY do with any holdings, and I stand by those. I say that he likely wouldn't raise the flop and turn with an ace, for example. If I get to showdown and realize he did precisely that, it doesn't mean that my assessment was incorrect. However, the next time that situation comes up, I should probably tweak my percentages (but not necessarily overhaul them altogether) I hope that makes sense... [/ QUOTE ] It does, which is why I'm glad you're posting more. |
#25
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
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I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty.... But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn. There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind? A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop. Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop. A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1. Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think). But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc). I just don't think I can fold the turn. Josh [/ QUOTE ] Good reply and excellent analysis. I think you're behind on the turn more often than not. I don't know either if it's the 75% number you mentioned. I find it interesting you included that. Is that the number you like to believe you're behind enough when debating to fold? Or is it not relevant enough to pursue, because I find it interesting if it is. |
#26
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
he doesn't seem shy about raising your bets. seems like the only case where betting is not better is where he's been on a draw the whole way and won't bluff-raise.
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#27
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
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honestly, whenever i go for a checkraise, they check behind every time. [/ QUOTE ] heh, baronzeus is a c/r virgin |
#28
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty.... But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn. There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind? A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop. Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop. A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1. Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think). But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc). I just don't think I can fold the turn. Josh [/ QUOTE ] Good reply and excellent analysis. I think you're behind on the turn more often than not. I don't know either if it's the 75% number you mentioned. I find it interesting you included that. Is that the number you like to believe you're behind enough when debating to fold? Or is it not relevant enough to pursue, because I find it interesting if it is. [/ QUOTE ] The 75% number was just something I threw out there as a rough estimate. If I call the turn raise, I almost have to call any river. When he raises the turn, there are 8 BB in the pot, and I'll lose 2 more bets (one more on turn, one on river). So, if he never bluffs the river (worst case scenario), I'm risking 2 to win 8. I guess I shoulda said 80% then. If I'm ahead more than 20% of the time, I should call down, even if he never bluffs the river. If he'll bluff the river, I'm risking 2 to win 9, so I only need to be ahead 18.2% of the time. The 75% was a quick estimate, and was off a little. Josh |
#29
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Re: What I did.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I checked. [/ QUOTE ] Based on your analysis of your opponent's hand, your thinking is that he's on a busted draw and the only bet you're getting out of him on the river is from a bluff? [/ QUOTE ] I think his most likely holdings are: A6, 46, or some sort of draw (maybe draw/pair combo). If he has A6 or 46, he'll bet. If he has a busted draw, he may or may not bet, but there's certainly no value in me betting. It's entirely possible I underestimated his chance of having A5 or A3 and he checks behind (IMO, those are really the only hands he can possibly play this way that checks the river). I think it's close, but since I wake up every morning hoping I find a way to checkraise the river, I think checking is correct. Josh |
#30
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Results.
[ QUOTE ]
wow i think check-calling after the guy raises the flop is okay. as for the river i think you should bet/reraise but that's only cause i think the guy has the A he's been representing, which apparently you didnt since you kept calling him down. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't "keep calling him down", I only called once the entire hand. I ain't no pansy. In reality, the guy had T4o, and he checked behind on the river. I think that there is probably about a 50% chance he calls a river bet, and maybe a 10% chance that he bets the river. All this means is that if I was good enough to put him on this hand, I shoulda bet the river. Josh |
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