Is this semi-bluff +EV?

[bills217]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $50 NL (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">MP : (Villain)/ ($45.45)</font>
CO ($42.01)
Button ($54.25)
SB ($40.31)
BB ($21.90)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($63.83)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP : (Villain)/ calls $2, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, Villain calls $4.

Turn: ($12.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, Villain calls $3.

River: ($24.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, Villain...

Villain is loose-passive (77/13/0.80), I put him on a King. Is this +EV? Feel free to analyze any streets.

If you really want to try and take this pot down raise the turn to 12. He isnt folding to the minraise and most players are less likely to fold to a river bluff because they do not have to call anymore bets.

[The_Bends]

No basically.

A player with those numbers is so horrible that attempting to bluff them off hands is always going to be counter productive. I doubt he even folds a K often enough to make this a good bet never mind if he has an A/6

This isn't exactly a semi-bluff, you're only really drawing to a third Queen.

Especially if villain is loose-passive, you're only throwing chips away in my opinion.

[mayesie]

No offense, but the 4th st. check-raise was pretty weak.

Why do you put him on a King? Although a King is possible, so is an Ace or a Middle Pocket Pair (99-77)

I think you should be going for a cheap showdown at the River because there's a chance you're best (uncertain as it may be). The villain looks like he has a high WTSD%, making it unlikely to induce a fold.

[nietzreznor]

First of all, this isn't a semi-bluff. A semi-bluff is when you bet/raise without a made hand (i.e., you have nothing), but you have a decent chance of making the best hand in the future.

As for whether or not its +EV...

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is loose-passive (77/13/0.80

[/ QUOTE ]

and

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on a King

[/ QUOTE ]


Save a play like this for an opponent who will fold marginal hands, not one who will pay you off with mid pairs.