Calculating odds on your hole cards

SonicReducer · #1 10-27-2005, 11:33 AM

How do you go about this? Say your heads up with someone and you have J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. There's $100 in the pot and it's $30 for you to call. Pot odds are just over 3:1, right? But what are the odds for my cards against an unknown hand? How do I figure that out?

jedi · #2 10-27-2005, 12:04 PM

I think this part is more art than science. Depending on the action before you, you'll have to put an opponent on a range of hands. Then you figure out 1) what the likelyhood of each hand is and 2) what your chances of winning are against each hand. Put them together to get hand odds.

The hand will rarely be completely "unknown." If your opponents have any semblance of sanity, you can take out the crappiest starting hands from the equation (unless your opponent is in the blind for example).

Some tools online to help you figure out hand odds (poker stove for example) are useful away from the table, because you can plug in common situations and try to memorize those. You don't have to be exact, just in the ballpark.

Xhad · #3 10-27-2005, 12:04 PM

Download pokerstove

#4 10-27-2005, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How do you go about this? Say your heads up with someone and you have J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. There's $100 in the pot and it's $30 for you to call. Pot odds are just over 3:1, right? But what are the odds for my cards against an unknown hand? How do I figure that out?

[/ QUOTE ]

How is it $30 to call to a $100 pot heads up? Is this heads up, with $30/$60 blinds and $5 ante, and you're trying to figure out whether to call the big blind? Or is this some fuller table where there's only one person in?

SonicReducer · #5 10-27-2005, 12:38 PM

I just picked random numbers....I'm trying to figure out if the pot odds are 3:1 how would I figure out what would my hand's odds be to see if it's worth calling. The example is not real.

If I thought he had QQ what would my hand's odds be against him and should I call? With QQ he's 84% to my 16%, what is that in terms of x:1 for me? Is that like 5:1 against me?

MikeBandy · #6 10-27-2005, 12:48 PM

Yes. You got it about right.

#7 10-27-2005, 01:11 PM

This stuff always confuses me, which is why Ill never actually be good at poker.

Wake up CALL · #8 10-27-2005, 02:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just picked random numbers....I'm trying to figure out if the pot odds are 3:1 how would I figure out what would my hand's odds be to see if it's worth calling. The example is not real.

If I thought he had QQ what would my hand's odds be against him and should I call? With QQ he's 84% to my 16%, what is that in terms of x:1 for me? Is that like 5:1 against me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is right but your thinking is not. Unless he turns over his two queens you should call with QJ suited, no 2nd thought. You need only consider the entire range of hands he might raise with, not the worse case scenario. If he is very well known to you and predictable you can narrow down his hand range required to make this raise. If he is either not well known to you or unpredictable then you pretty much should call with that particular hand and those odds.

AaronBrown · #9 10-27-2005, 02:43 PM

PokerStove, as has been mentioned, will answer your specific question. But unless this is an all-in bet, it's the wrong question. You're leaping to the finish, there's a lot of Poker to play first.

Your choices are to fold, call or raise; you're only considering call and fold. Plus, the hand probably won't make it to showdown. You need to think about other possibilities. If it does make it to showdown it will probably be because some important cards turned up on the board, what those cards are matter to your decision.

Suited QJ is a reasonably strong starting hand, it wins 60.26% of the time (counting a tie as half a win) heads up. That makes it about average of hands the other player is likely to bet with. So on that basis, it's probably not right to fold. Raising has some value, if the other player calls, you're probably about even so there's no loss. If he reraises, it's probably a high pair and this might be the cheapest way to find that out. If he folds, you make a nice profit on a not-so-great hand.

Next, think about what can happen on the flop. Getting two spades or a straight draw is probably not enough to continue playing against only one other player. So you pretty much need a Queen or Jack to stay in the hand. If an Ace or King shows up, even if you get your Queen or Jack, you might want to fold. If a pair of Queens or Jacks shows up, the other guy will probably fold, so you won't get rich this way.

You could hit something lucky, but the most likely ways to win with this hand is if the other guy folds or it gets checked to the river. In either of these situations, it is a big advantage if you raised preflop.