%of Time Tonights World Series Ends in a One run game???

Ken_AA · #1 10-25-2005, 05:20 PM

With Houston -1.5 +120 and The Sox -1.5 +260, whats the % of time that this game ends as a One run game? (I have no idea how to figure that out.)

Ken

20Five · #2 10-25-2005, 05:25 PM

Very interesting post [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

would like to see someone try to break this one down and see if this could be a +ev bet or not

whipsaw · #3 10-25-2005, 05:46 PM

I think it's around 30%, given the propensity of these teams to be involved in 1 run games during the regular season. That number might even be a little low because teams will sometimes get tighter in the playoffs, making one run games more likely. You're going to need to be right some 75% of the time to be profitable with this play, and I don't think you get enough of an edge to play the bet in this game.

If you're trying to split the baby like this, I would consider the CWS moneyline and HOU runline. Chicago won a lot of 1 run games, higher % than 1 run losses. Houston's W/L on one run games was about the same % for each. Even this I think is a marginal play.

whipsaw · #4 10-25-2005, 05:55 PM

For what it's worth, I do occasionally make this type of play taking the dog ML and the fav RL. I usually like to have a spread of at least 100-120 points before I even consider it (e.g. +150 dog ML and +165 fav RL). This game has a spread of 90-95, which in my opinion is a -EV play. Given more time, I could give better reasons why I think in some cases this is a +EV play.