Casino Bonus Worth it or not

[Homer]

Alright, so it's a 1000/500/60000. If the HA is 0.5%, EV is $200, which isn't bad. However, to have a decent hourly rate, say $20/hr, you're going to have to bet about $15/hand, which gives you an SD of $1090. Translation -- you're going to lose money about 43% of the time, and it's not outside the realm of possibility that you'll lose a lot. Probability of losing $500 or more is 26%.