Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Seven

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SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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lol ok

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You can lol yourself all you want, go watch the whole game and then try and tell me the SD defense had any effect on the game.... seriously. Let me know what you think..

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So my question is does the SD offense deserve some credit for constantly putting the Philly O, in a very difficult road matchup, in a situation where they could only make the passes they did?

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I assume you mean defense here, and the answer is no - Philly held the time of possession advantage by 3-1 entering the 4th quarter, SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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For the record my first response came because I found Performify's analysis of the game totally wrong when he said was spot on:

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LT is certainly looking hot on the ground (ed: 7 yds), but the Chargers air attack is not (ed: 299 yds). Philly blows out to an early lead at home (ed: small 7-0 at end of 2nd qtr), helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind (ed: came back from deficit to take lead), and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack (287 yds on 54 attempts, 2 INT).

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So basically, all wrong. I give credit where credit is due, and it was not due here. Otherwise, ice job on the week jedi.

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SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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lol ok

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You can lol yourself all you want, go watch the whole game and then try and tell me the SD defense had any effect on the game.... seriously. Let me know what you think..

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So just to clarify, a defense forcing an offense into a short play passing attack means they had no effect. If so, I guess we agree to differ, that's all. Their performance was hardly suffocating but good enough for a road performance. That's basically my point here, they came up good enough for the road.

I'm a little frustrated about it obviously, small bet as it was. Don't get me started on my darn Houston bet (burning David Carr in effigy as we speak)....

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For the record my first response came because I found Performify's analysis of the game totally wrong when he said was spot on:

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LT is certainly looking hot on the ground (ed: 7 yds), but the Chargers air attack is not (ed: 299 yds). Philly blows out to an early lead at home (ed: small 7-0 at end of 2nd qtr), helping to neutralize LT. The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind (ed: came back from deficit to take lead), and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack (287 yds on 54 attempts, 2 INT).

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Well, i was certainly being results oriented in saying that I thought my analysis was close (but obviously not quite there) in regards to the Eagles.

For what its worth, here's my full prediction and how I would dissect it - I certainly don't think I was "totally wrong":

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Philly -3.5 over San Diego
LT is certainly looking hot on the ground, but the Chargers air attack is not. (ed: referring to past games, not a prediction for this game) Philly blows out to an early lead at home (ed: small seven point lead through the first half, ten point lead through the end of 3nd qtr, small leads but still early leads held through the start of the 4th Q), helping to neutralize LT (ed: LT was most certainly neutralized, by the Philly defense stacking the box as expected and by the Eagles lead). The Chargers aren't nearly as good playing from behind (ed: meaning their offense is much better when they can dictate the tempo with a run-first offense, as they've been able to do in past weeks, and I think you saw that as a truism here - when their run game got shutdown as predicted the SD offense didn't perform nearly to the level of the last few weeks), and can't keep up with the Philly offensive attack (ed: here was the major disparity; Philly certainly didn't look that sharp, only 287 yds on 34/54 attempts and 1TD with 2INT). This is a pivotal game for Philly (ed: correct), which will move to 4-2 with the win (ed: correct). The Eagles are coming off a big 33-10 loss to Dallas and then a bye week, so they'll have plenty of motivation to come out strong (ed: correct, but faded in second half). Andy Reid is 2-0 at home this season, 2-0 vs. the AFC West this season, and, most importantly Philly is 6-0 after the bye during Reid’s reign (ed: all mentioned trends continued, note none of these are ATS trends). Defensive tackle Darwin Walker should return for the Eagles and that will be a huge help for the defensive line (ed: yep) . The Chargers are also banged up after a physical game at Oakland and are flying cross-country. (ed: yep) 27-21 Philly (ed: 20-17 is pretty close, but obviously close enough).


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So yeah, I expected Philly to be just a little sharper on offense - but otherwise the game went pretty much as expected. Philly did take an early lead, albeit a small one because their offense wasn't clicking and because San Diego was able to make some big/lucky plays on defense (i.e. the interceptions). Philly was certainly able to neutralize LT as I predicted - because the San Diego passing game had not been that hot lately (as mentioned) they were able to put 8+ in the box and shut down the run entirely. However McNabb still seems limited by the injury, as he wasn't as sharp as expected and ultimately couldn't put up as many points as expected.

At the end of the game I was expecting/hoping to see San Diego hit the field goal, then the Eagles march downfield and score to send the game to OT, where hopefully the Eagles would have a chance to break a TD versus setting up for a FG.

[FishNChips]

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SD's defense had nothing to do with the game, really.

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lol ok

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The Chargers D had a tremendous effect on the game. 3 penalties for 35 yards (including 1 that nullified a turnover and the other 2 gave Philly first downs) on the Eagles first scoring drive.

I thought the game plan was a good one. You don't have to get to McNabb to make him ineffective. You have to make sure he doesn't make plays with his legs (less of a threat these days, but still a consideration) and you have to make him a bit nervous in the pocket. Then drop 7 and wait for the inaccuracy to begin.

Saying that McNabb was inaccurate and made bad decisions, even when he had all day to throw, is like saying the sun came up this morning. The passing attack is based on TO getting wide open and Westbrook making people miss out of the backfield. The Chargers did a nice job slowing some of that down and forcing McNabb to look to 3rd and 4th options and that's when he has trouble.

LT was stuffed. period.

The Chargers should have won that game. Its amazing how creative they are getting in dropping 4th quarter leads this year.

I missed the end of the first half. Can someone tell me what happened? Seems like Philly drove to the SD 1 but didn't get any scores as time ran out. Too bad, that would have been the cover right there.

I see, well that's certainly different than "spot on" which was all I was driving at. The result wasn't far from you thought but the blocked FG had everything to do with that. It's assuming quite a bit to think the Eagles would've gone down easily for a TD to tie the score to send the game into OT. The biggest disparity between prediction and result was that SD couldn't play well from behind -- they did and that's the major reason this game ended in the result it did.

I suppose when I hear "spot on" I expect something pretty darn close to what happened. Otherwise, great job on the week. I can't buy a win on the spread at this point, Philly included.

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I missed the end of the first half. Can someone tell me what happened? Seems like Philly drove to the SD 1 but didn't get any scores as time ran out. Too bad, that would have been the cover right there.

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It was classic Andy "Gameday" Reid.

They have no timeouts left (surprise). The drive started at their own 20 with almost 4:00 remaining, and they dink and dunk their way down the field when....

1st and 10 at the SD 13 with :10 left in the half, and McNabb passes to LJ Smith in the middle of the field for 4 yards (because when the player is tackled in the middle of the field, the clock stops, right?) - Team tries to hurry and lineup to spike the ball for the FG try, but was whistled for a false start. Clock starts on whistle, end of half - lots of booing ensued.

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I suppose when I hear "spot on" I expect something pretty darn close to what happened.

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Yeah, I was probably a little too enthusiastic on patting myself on the back - was just a little frustrated from the close loss and trying to console myself that i'd gotten it "close but not quite".

I should have said that I was close in my analysis, and hit a couple major points correctly (LT shut down, Philly winning, etc) but obviously not by enough points. Close game that could have gone either way though (for example had Philly had an extra timeout at the end of the first half we'd be looking at 10-0 at halftime or possibly even 14-0).

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Otherwise, great job on the week. I can't buy a win on the spread at this point, Philly included.

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Thanks. Its been a good two weeks, after barely outrunning the juice the first five weeks. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]