Meh? AQs EP flops middle pair, mono board. Turn?

JerseyTom · #1 10-21-2005, 05:02 PM

Reads:

UTG+2 is mildly retarded, 66/3/0.28 over 33 hands this session. Cold-calls EP raises with such heavyweight hands as Q9o. Limps crap like T6s on the button in front of one MP limper. Doesn't raise JJ preflop after one EP limper.

BB is fairly new to the table and has not shown down any hands (VPIP ~26% over 15 hands).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: JerseyTom is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, JerseyTom raises, UTG+2 calls, 6 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, JerseyTom raises, UTG+2 calls, BB 3-bets, JerseyTom calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, JerseyTom...?

Hands like this give me that not-so-fresh feeling... I'm thinkng bet-fold here is best, since I don't give a high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or stray broadway a free draw. BB is unknown, but doesn't seem retarded. UTG+2 could have T7o for all I know...

Comments?

Tom

toss · #2 10-21-2005, 05:17 PM

Check behind and see the river with you X amount of outs.

JerseyTom · #3 10-22-2005, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check behind and see the river with you X amount of outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why check behind? This is becoming a decent-sized pot and I don't want to give a free card to BB, and can probably bet for value vs UTG+2's range of holdings. Or is this thinking just retarded?

And what do you estimate X to be? Or do you mean it's difficult to know how many outs we have?

Thanks,

Tom

toss · #4 10-22-2005, 11:39 AM

I reallly don't think BB is 3-betting the flop out of position with just Ah... well sometimes he will, but more often than not that turn check is going to be a trap. I guess you can make an argument for bet/folding the turn. Its also difficult to ascertain how many outs we have with BB's action and UTG's coldcalling.

thejameser · #5 10-22-2005, 11:40 AM

i could fold here. small pot, you may or may not have the best hand. the odds of you being outdrawn are very good. not enough for me to fight over, especially with someone cold-calling behind me. you pair your ace to two outs. you may hit a gutshot on the river only to lose to a baby flopped flush. if i had top pair i may want to fight a little more, but here i would fold the flop. on the turn, if i got there i would check. i hate to give those drawing a free card, but i don't want to be check raised either. i don't like my hand enough to invest that much in it. get to sd cheaply and if no heart comes you could call.

JerseyTom · #6 10-22-2005, 05:13 PM

Thanks for the comments all.

Good arguments for checking the turn and seeing what the river brings. I think I'd have a hard time calling a turn bet from UTG+2 (given his passivity) or a river lead from BB.

In the end, here's what happened:

Turn: Jd. BB checks, JerseyTom checks, UTG+2 checks.
River: 9d. BB checks, JerseyTom checks, UTG+2 checks.

BB shows AhJc.
UTG+2 shows AsJh.
MHIG.