another "did I accept a bad deal" post

[Mackie]

Limit HE, down to 3 players. Remaining payouts: 17756, 8788, 4395. Approximate chip counts 100k, 25k, 25k. Current limit 2k-4k. We agreed on a save - 12k for the big stack and 7500 for each small stack, then play for the remaining $3939, winner take all. Is this a good deal for everyone or does this favor the big stack or the small stacks? I was digging for my copy of TPFAP last night, which I refer to as the guide for deal analisys, but couldn't find it, and I don't remember the formulas. Any help appreciated. Results later.

[Copernicus]

It looks a little short for the chip leader but not terribly so. I would take the deal and eliminate the big comeback by one of the 2 small stacks.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
Remaining payouts: 17756, 8788, 4395.
Approximate chip counts 100k, 25k, 25k.
save - 12k for the big stack and 7500 for each small stack, then play for the remaining $3939, winner take all.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds very fair.

Here's how I figure it. Big stack has 2/3 of the chips, and 2/3 of a chance at winning. That's about $12K in equity. I also figure him for about a 1/4 chance of 2nd, which is about $2200, and 1/12th of 3rd, which is about $400. This all adds up to about $14,500.

The deal gives him $12,000, plus 2/3 equity in $4000, which is about $14,300. So, it's a slightly bad deal, but not enough to worry about making a mistake.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Scooterdoo]

Seems like a good deal for all -- very clever. The big stack is guaranteed quite a bit more than 2nd and will likely end up just short of what he would probably get anyway assuming he gets the remaining money. The short stacks get to lock up close to 2nd money and have an outside shot of getting a good deal more. I like it.

[Mackie]

thanks for the comments - they confirmed what I thought, that it was close to mathmatically correct. Now, here's the rest of the information I didn't provide - I was the big stack. Limit hold'em is my best game, but not short handed and definitly not heads up. I can hold my own heads up in no limit, but I'm weak at heads up limit. I felt I could handle one of the small stacks pretty easily, but the other one had owned me up to this point - he had me pegged, and I was worried about him dispite my chip lead. I had made the final table in a stud8 event the previous night and was very tired, so I waited until I was on the button and suggested the deal and they agreed. As it turned out my instincts proved correct as the guy I feared did end up winning, but I couldn't decide if the deal was correct without the benefit of hindsight.

[Bozeman]

Equitable deal:
$ 14581 8179 8179

Your deal:
$ 14626 8156.5 8156.5

So you made a few bucks on the deal.

Craig

PS #'s are contingent on the accuracy of your estimates and ignore position.