An overplayed? flush draw

Skuzzy · #1 10-20-2005, 09:30 AM

This table had just lost its main value and was suddenly averaging 16/3, villain was 23/8.3/4 over 675 hands. I had notes that said he always continuation bet, was "tricky" and rather cryptically (I suck at notes) "crys".

Normally I fold ATs UTG, but with the game being so tight/passive I limped it - just a mood thing.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed)

Hero ($136)
MP1 ($220.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
Hero calls $1, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 6 folds, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($9.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hero checks,
Villain bets $9,
Hero raises to $35,
Villain pushes all in,
Hero ????

My first reaction when villain pushed was QQ and I should fold, but I decided he was more likely to have AQ, AA or KK, given the push and wanted me out of the pot; even if he had the set of Queens, I still had flush outs, and there was always some chance he'd just done the old "when good bluffs go bad!!" line with AK or maybe JJ. I was confident he had correctly put me on a flush draw.
I just wasn't sure of my equity here. Calling ~95 more to win a ~270 pot seemed like an easy call with 9 flush outs, 2 tens and possibly 3 aces. I ignored the small chance the Aces were outs and so figured I needed 1.4:1 to call if he had AQ (KQ?), and if he had the set of Q's I was a little short of my needed odds, and faced the redraw possibility even if i hit, but I thought the not insignificant chance he was bluffing might cover this.

All this reasoning I actually did in post hand analysis. At the table I simply ran out of time and made my best guess and called it.

Did I over value my hand? How do I decide this quickly at the table?

pottie · #2 10-20-2005, 09:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling ~95 more to win a ~270 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Not

Skuzzy · #3 10-20-2005, 09:47 AM

Not what?

vulturesrow · #4 10-20-2005, 09:48 AM

ITs close, but I probably call this too. Not saying that is the right answer.

pottie · #5 10-20-2005, 10:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Not what?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's $273.5 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . Sorry read it as 95 to win 270.

#6 10-20-2005, 10:20 AM

I think it's close. I don't feel like doing the math, but I think more times than not he has KK here which give you more outs (3 aces and 2 tens along with 7 other diamonds). If he does have KK this is a call. If he has QQ, it's probably a fold. If he has AA, it's close. Considering that you ended up putting in so much already on the flop, I probably go ahead and call.

Note though that I just call Villain's $9 on the flop. You don't have to go wild every time you pick up a big draw. You're out of position and considering Villain's preflop raise and PSB on the flop, there's no reason to think you have much fold equity here. You wouldn't be a complete puss for just calling the flop.

nietzreznor · #7 10-20-2005, 02:17 PM

In situations like this (with pair + NFD) I would rather do something like bet/3-bet push or c/c than the flop c/r. The problem with c/r on this flop is that if you get flat-called, you are feeling kinda lost on the turn if you don't hit your flush. You have built a big pot, and are OOP without a good made hand.

As played, I would call, he would have to have a set the VAST majority of the time to get me to lay this down.

xorbie · #8 10-20-2005, 02:47 PM

Check raise all in baby.