$16: push ANY two from the SB?

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
It's basically always right to push any 2 SB vs. BB if you have 13 or less BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not even close to true.

Here's an example.

Blinds 50/100
stacks
BB 7700
SB 1300
button 500
co 500

Folded to you in SB with 32o, BB will call with 22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs+

PUSHING IS -3.2%.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
It's basically always right to push any 2 SB vs. BB if you have 13 or less BB. There was an article on it... Which I've failed to bookmark at work.


[/ QUOTE ]

That article is full of crap.

eastbay

[eastbay]

My first comment is that it would be nice if people were a little more cautious about claiming "what SNGPT says." SNGPT does not "say this is a push."

What it does say is that if you make certain calling assumptions, the EV difference is some figure. There's a difference, especially when you don't qualify with all the critical information about what you're assuming about your opponents' play.

This is how I'd look at this hand.

OP made the important observation that he'd pushed 4 times in a row coming into this. That's big. That's important. The table is looking for a spite call at this point, and even conservatively speaking I think a range for BB in this situation might be any pair, any ace, KT+, maybe even QJs: a good quarter of his hands. You don't threaten BB's tournament life here, and if he busts you, he not only gets an edge on the table, he gets to type something like "justice, idiot" in the chat box, making him feel real smug and warm inside.

In that case this is a losing push by SNGPT analysis.

We're not totally dead in the water if we let this one go by.

Let's turn this around and look at it from BB's perspective for a moment, and assume he is an ICM expert - then we'll return to reality after that. Let's say he suspects you're pushing any two cards here. It's correct for him to call with 45% of his hands, all the way down to junk like T9o.

Now, he's probably not that ICM savvy, nor is he sure you're really pushing any two. So let's say he actually makes an assumption that you're pushing top 50% of hands. That leads us back to his correct calling range being:

44+,A5o+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+,QJs

for 21% of hands, which is pretty darn close to our original assumption. I think it's ballpark good enough for examining this hand, and I think this push is borderline at best.

If your image was tight coming into this, go for it. But it isn't, so pusher beware.

eastbay

[lastchance]

Let me make this simple:
It is correct to push any 2 if your opponent has a reasonably tight range/will lay down quite a few hands.
However, if your opponent puts you on any 2 here and adjusts accordingly, you can't push here because your opponent will correctly call with junk like QTo.

[ QUOTE ]
OP made the important observation that he'd pushed 4 times in a row coming into this.

[/ QUOTE ]I'm pretty sure what he meant is that he's pushed four times total (out of 40 hands). Not that he has pushed the last four hands.

[PokerProdigy]

When I put this into the sng power tools, it said to push with any two, EXCEPT if BB was a maniac which you said is not true. But, I am new with sngpt so I may have messed up and typed something wrong in there [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
When I put this into the sng power tools, it said to push with any two, EXCEPT if BB was a maniac which you said is not true. But, I am new with sngpt so I may have messed up and typed something wrong in there [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

The button labels of tight, average, loose, maniac are really just mnemonics and the default ranges are just that - defaults. It's really just like radio buttons on your car radio - you should set them to something you like and that is appropriate for you and the games you play in.

You need to think really think about what the actual range is likely to actually be, not whether "the guy is a maniac" or something like that.

eastbay

[ QUOTE ]
It's really just like radio buttons on your car radio - you should set them to something you like and that is appropriate for you and the games you play in.

You need to think really think about what the actual range is likely to actually be, not whether "the guy is a maniac" or something like that.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, with my initial playing around with SNGPT, what I have really learned is that I need to be able to better define calling ranges. I think the players in the games I play in (PS $15+1 turbos for the most part) are typically somewhere between the loose and maniac defaults. (Yes, it varies a lot from player to player.)

Quite a few of the pushes that looked a bit odd to me weren't pushes anymore when I loosened up caller's range just a bit. (Still, I don't push often enough in some situations.)

[Fletch46]

Why wouldn't you wait until the next hand to make a move? You've got to get something better than 62 and you'd have better position.

I am guessing the article you guys were referring to is this one. He seems to make a convincing case but having run this particular example through my ICM and pokerstove (don't have anything fancier) I am no longer sure of its truth web page