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#21
09-27-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: I\'m having difficulty accepting that I should hit a 16 against a 7
Actually, 16 vs. 10 is very close, with hitting just barely better than standing. 16 vs. 7 is not close. Hitting is much better. I don't have my copy of "Professional Blackjack" handy, so I can't give you exact EV'S.
Like a lot of blackjack basic strategy, this is a choice of evils, both options are -EV, but hitting is better. The reason that 16 vs. 10 is close and 16 vs. 7 isn't is that against a dealer 10, you will frequently lose to a 20 when you hit and don't bust, but against a 7, you will are more likely to beat the dealer's 17. Even though the dealer is more likely to bust with a 7 than with a 10, this does not make up for the higher probability of beating him when you hit and don't bust. 16 vs. 7 is, overall, quite a bit better EV than 16 vs. 10. A lot of blackjack basic strategy is counter-intuitive. This is one reason that casinos make money off of a game that is nearly even if played correctly. A lot of people just don't believe the strategy charts, and think they can do better by "going with their gut". Also, I think there is a psychological factor. When you bust, the dealer scoops up your cards and money right away, sending a message that you screwed up. When you stand, you feel like you still have a chance, even though you actually lose more often. 
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#22
10-04-2005, 11:29 PM
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Re: I\'m having difficulty accepting that I should hit a 16 against a 7
you will never be a good blackjack player because you do not understand stats.
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#23
10-13-2005, 08:52 AM
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Re: I\'m having difficulty accepting that I should hit a 16 against a 7
[ QUOTE ]
you will never be a good blackjack player because you do not understand stats. [/ QUOTE ] its not even necessary to understand stats as long as you can trust that other people who do know stats have already figured these decisions out already. the effort is much better spent on learning to count effectively... and you can't do that if you are spending a bunch of time making basic strategy decisions
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#24
10-15-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: I\'m having difficulty accepting that I should hit a 16 against a 7
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It is a close decision to hit or stand on 16 against a 10 but it is a large error to stand on 16 against 7. [/ QUOTE ] Now this is even more confusing. I thought it would be the other way around. If you stand at 16 and the dealer is showing a 10, the only cards he could have that won't beat you are 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. If you stand at 16 and the dealer is showing a 7, he could have a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 and you wouldn't be beat. Sure he could still make a good hand, but he could also bust. At the moment, you're only beaten by a 10 or ace. So how is a 10 more marginal than a 7? [/ QUOTE ] The easy answer is, of course, that the EV of both moves have been calculated and it's simply true. However, think of it this way. Let's say you do hit your little card to make an 18 or 19. Your EV has improved greatly against the dealer's 7, but against the 10 there's a pretty good chance that he'll beat you anyway. So the reward for catching a non-bust card is greater against a 7.
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#25
10-18-2005, 02:17 AM
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Re: I\'m having difficulty accepting that I should hit a 16 against a 7
Not hitting on 16 vs. dealer 7 is in good standing of the blackjack chump society.
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#26
10-19-2005, 02:41 PM
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Re: I\'m having difficulty accepting that I should hit a 16 against a 7
Anyone else think this thread is hilarious? I'd never heard of there being "fish" in blackjack before.
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#27
10-19-2005, 08:24 PM
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Re: I\'m having difficulty accepting that I should hit a 16 against a 7
Really? Most people who play blackjack are fish. They don't play nearly even close to perfect basic strategy
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