What odds do we need to peel the turn or river to spike a set? (long)

[Augster]

I am really having trouble with this.

Supposedly, if you see all 5 cards, you will spike your set 20% of the time, correct? That's a lot actually.

After the flop, in order to peel the turn going directly by odds, we'd need the pot to be giving us 22.5:1. That's never going to happen. Even with implied odds, you'd need to make up a TON of BB's.

What odds should I be taking to peel the turn? 10 or 11:1 good enough?

Like this:

MP with 33, UTG calls, you call, a couple folds, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, you call, and CO calls. 12 SB.

Flop is A-J-6 Rainbow. Most likely we are behind. It's checked to the button and he bets. SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls. It's 14:1 to us. Hero?

I've been making that laydown consistently. Even getting 10-14:1. What is the cutoff to peel? At 14:1 odds we'd need to eke out 4 BB's to justify our implied odds. At 10:1 we'd need 6 BB's if I'm thinking clearly here.

What I'm getting at is this. Is there a magic pot-odds "justification point" where we should always peel the turn or the river? Like 10:1 or something.

Thanks for the help.

In keeping with this, how'd I play this:

MP1 is 30ish/7 and plays okay.

UTG is TAG at 18/10/2 and plays pretty well.

PartyPoker $.5/$1 Full Ring (10 handed)

Hero is UTG+1 with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-flop: UTG Raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 5 folds, UTG calls. (10.5 SB)

The previous orbit me and UTG had just done the same line. He had raised AJs and I had AKos. He didn't cap then, just like he didn't here. I was worried about MP1 cold-calling 3 as he wasn't a fish. Not real aggressive, but never called a raise, let alone 3 while I was sitting there.

FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bets, Hero Raises, MP1 calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, MP1 calls, UTG calls. (22.5 SB)

I am a bit worried that I couldn't knock out MP1. This flop played exactly like the other hand with UTG where he had AJ and I had AK and an A flopped. UTG would also bet a flush draw this same way. Unfortunately, I KNOW at this point I am at least behind MP1, and most likely behind UTG and am happy to call down as the pot is so large.

TURN: (11.25 BB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG Bets, Hero calls, MP1 Raises, UTG 3-bets, HERO??

When is there enough cash in there to peel the river? I am going to assume it'd be capped on the turn. So that's 3 more BB's to win a pot of 23.25 BB's. The only hand we lose to if we spike is KK, and the flush if the spade comes.

All the action on the turn though, I don't think they are on flush draws. MP1 wouldn't have all of a sudden started betting a flush draw here. UTG wouldn't have 3-bet a flush draw I don't think. So I'm pretty sure my Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is good giving me 2 outs to the win HOPING nobody has KK.

Any help is appreciated, and sorry for the long post.

[numeri]

There's no clear cut-off for your flop peel. It depends on the number of opponents in the hand with you and how many bets you think you'll get out of them. Ideally, you'd like 2+ others, and at least one other aggressive player who will help you get those extra bets.

In your hand, why were you so aggressive? I don't get it. A TAG 3-bets a K-high flop and you cap? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Also, your justification that you should call down since the pot is large is plain nuts. Maybe you read somewhere here that Ed Miller said not to fold in large pots, but that doesn't mean you should call down if you think you're behind.

[deception5]

You need about 23:1 to peel for a set. around 11:1 is sufficient if you know you'll get a free card.

[Augster]

Thanks guys.

Numeri,

I raised him and capped on the flop as I think he'd play it that way pushing a flush. Actually, in retrospect, I gave him a lot more range with his hands than he probably actually had due to not capping preflop.

Doesn't AK cap pre, and AA? KQs most likely wouldn't. As wouldn't QQ, JJ, TT, 99.

So him not capping preflop gave me the impression he had a lesser hand.

But you are right. His 3-bet on the turn should have woken me up a bit and the flop cap is a bit excessive.

If an A would have come on the turn, I'd have KNOWN I was beaten and folded for sure without even calling one bet.

As it played out, UTG bet the turn, I called, MP1 Raised, UTG 3-bet and I folded. MP1 called.

River was a Q.

Bet-call, both of them had AA.

I was correct knowing I was WB, I'm just trying to justify a scenario where I could have stayed to the river without an A on the board I guess.

The first hand I mentioned happened today also, and it was 12:1 or so to me, and I folded with 33. Turn was a 3 of course and my set would have been goooooT.

I'm just wondering if I'm being too weak with my pocket pairs even when I'm pretty sure I'm behind. Like when an Ace flops. Most pocket pairs are WB when an ace flops more often than not at the low limits because so many folks play any ace.

Thanks for the help.