($11)(Party)QQ at 10/15. All in on flop--Good/Bad/Donky?

[JudoGirl]

One of the things I've found on the Party 11's is that people are willing to call huge overbets because they think it is a bluff. I've used this several times to win some nice chips. In this hand, I went all in on the flop.

Seat 1: Villan1 (800)
Seat 2: Hero (800)
Seat 3: Villan2 (680)
Seat 5: Villan3 (1035)
Seat 6: Villan4 (785)
Seat 8: Villan5 (935)
Seat 9: Villan6 (2180)
Seat 10: Villan7 (785)
Villan7 sb (10)
Villan1 bb (15)

Dealt to Hero [ Qh, Qd ]

Hero raises (85) to 85
1 fold
Villan3 calls (85)
5 folds

I put villan on overcards or a smaller pair. I think he will reraise me if he has AA/KK.

Flop: [ 9c, 2c, 6c ]

Ok flop for me. I think it is unlikely that villan hit the flush, but he may have a club. If he had a smaller pair, he could have a set, but that is, well, as unlikely as it is that someone hits a set. I think that if villan has an underpair or high club, he is likely to call an all-in overbet (people just seem to do this in the 11's). If he has the flush or a set, of course he will also call and I'll likely lose all my chips. Is my thinking completely out of touch with other peoples' experiences at the PP 11's?

Villan called. Do you think I am ahead or behind when he calls? Do you think this is a +EV move? This is not how I normally play, but I'm experimenting with the Party 11's and trying different things.

Hero bets (715)
Hero is all-In.
Villan3 calls (715)

[Seth Money]

JudoGirl,

This is honestly a very tough one to put a hand on because it can be a wide range of hands but seeing as he called I would probably say that you are 50/50 to win this with the highest probably of him having the flush already or have the 1st or 2nd nut draw. He called your preflop raise of 85 so the possibility of AK,AQ,AJ,99, or something in that regard is really possible.

Not to downplay your post here at all, but I wouldn't make this push in the 10/15 blinds. Like I said in a previous post, if you are a skilled player you should be able to dominate in mid and late game and this play is unnecessary. Why get in when in my opinion you could be a pure coin flip to dominated?

I agree theres donks on the 10's but if you lose to a small flush do you blame yourself or the donk for calling?

Ok enough negative, I hate negative so I won't anymore I apologize, I am interested to see your results though, I am 65/35 your behind when he calls though.

I hope you won it though with him calling with midpair and no club, that would be validation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


Seth

[Shillx]

Hey Judo

Yeah you have to shove it in here. He will have outflopped you only about 5% of the time, so if he only calls you with sets or flushes that is fine by you. If he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a pair+[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] you are a small favorite as long as he doesn't have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If he wants to call with just a smaller [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] then he is taking way the worst of it. There is just no way you can lose here as you either get the best of it when he calls or he folds too much and gives up some equity on the T200 in the middle.

If he calls 30% of the time with 60% equity, you win ~T200 70% of the time and lose about T140 the rest. This comes out to a net of about +T100 over just giving up and essentially handing him the pot by checking.

Brad

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to downplay your post here at all, but I wouldn't make this push in the 10/15 blinds. Like I said in a previous post, if you are a skilled player you should be able to dominate in mid and late game and this play is unnecessary. Why get in when in my opinion you could be a pure coin flip to dominated?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't quite understand what you're saying here Seth. When people say to be sure you're able to dominate mid and late game with your skill, it doesn't mean to avoid all confrontation before then. What exactly are you saying here? Do you fold? Are you checking and folding to any aggression? You can't simply go running on any flop that looks dangerous with undercards to QQ. You're giving up way too much if you simply say "I could be beat, so I'm done with it."

I'm especially confused by:
[ QUOTE ]
Why get in when in my opinion you could be a pure coin flip to dominated?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true that if he calls, he'll likely have some outs. He could have a made flush or set, but this does not happen often. He may call with a pair + draw or just a big club, but you'll be ahead then. The big part is that he'll frequently be folding this. When that happens, you add nearly 200 chips without having to see any more cards.

My big worry here is that you're misunderstanding the situation. He'll be folding this a very large percentage of the time, and if you get called you'll still be ahead frequently. The claim that you're a "coin flip to be dominated" is strange, and I'm curious what you meant by it.

To the OP: Personally, I'll bet the pot and then, if I get called, push a non-club turn. You're not particularly looking to get called here on your all in, because many hands that are trying to "pick off your bluff" have at least nine outs (clubs) against you.

As I said to Sean, you're usually getting a fold here. If you get called you're likely ahead anyway. A push is fine, but I like the bet 200 - push a safe turn line.

-SonnyJay

[JudoGirl]

Thx for the replies Seth, Brad, and Sonny.

Seth, I'm also interested in what lines you would take on this flop.

Sonny, let's say you lead out with 200 and get reraised all in. You fold or call? If you lead out and get called and a non-club hits, do you push? If you lead out and get called and a club hits, do you check-fold?

[SonnyJay]

At an $11 I'm calling an all-in. If he has a really good flush he's probably not puting you all in here, and in my experience you'll see an A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] frequently. Clearly it's not the ideal situation, but again, at a game as fishy as the $11 I don't think you can let this go to that bet. I'm definitely willing to hear other arguments though.

If you're called, I'm pushing the turn. A check is way too dangerous, he can check through and catch the club for free. If he has you beat he has you beat, but make him pay to draw out.

-SonnyJay

[SCfuji]

judo
villain here will pay off with many many types of worse pairs. dont be surprised if you see a flush every now and then, though.

[vexvelour]

I may be wrong, but what about a bet around 200t? If he's scared, he'll fold, and if he's not he'll call with his draw or raise with his flush. You will find out more info and put less of your chips on the line this way. As someone said above, if the turn is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] then you may want to slow down and assess.

This is what I call playing tight in the early rounds: not putting your whole tourney on the line early on.

It depends on the player you're up against, not the general consensus of the people on the site, too.

I play $5 sngs though. If my thinking is terribly flawed, I'm sure someone will tell me. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]