#1
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Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
With the Party BBJ around $600K, I spent a little time and modified my simulator to count hands that would qualify for the BBJ. Here are the results after a few billion hands:
Overall chance of BBJ: One per 192K hands The breakdown of BBJ hands is: SF over SF : 24% SF over Quads: 55% Quads over Quads: 21% These numbers assume no folds of the 2 hands involved. Looking at the actual hands, I think slightly more than 50% of the SF hands would be folded preflop (or even on the flop), so I'd guess the BBJ will hit around once per 350-400K hands on average. If the BBJ hit frequency is indeed once per 400K hands, that would mean the BBJ would be hit every ~$120-140K on average, since each raked hand contributes 0.50 to the BBJ, and assuming 60-70% of hands raked. So the current BBJ will probably be hit before it gets to $800K. Anyone else made an estimate of the BBJ frequency? My code attempts to follow the party rules (quads >= 8s, both hole cards used, etc.), but could have bugs of course. (I suppose this post might belong in probability or software, but who has time to read those while 10-tabling?) [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
#2
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
Quad hands will be folded too. 85o can win the jackpot by making quad 8s.
ZZZ |
#3
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
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Quad hands will be folded too. 85o can win the jackpot by making quad 8s. ZZZ [/ QUOTE ] Are you sure? Im pretty sure u have to use both holecards |
#4
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
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Quad hands will be folded too. 85o can win the jackpot by making quad 8s. ZZZ [/ QUOTE ] 85o can on a 88854 board. |
#5
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
yeah have to use both cards.
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#6
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
exactly
I have 85o board is 88843 both my hole-cards play. |
#7
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
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exactly I have 85o board is 88843 both my hole-cards play. [/ QUOTE ] At the casino where I play live, kickers don't count for a BBJ hand (it also only has to be Aces full of Tens beaten). I don't if Party's rule is different or not. |
#8
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
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exactly I have 85o board is 88843 both my hole-cards play. [/ QUOTE ] Thx, now I get it [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] |
#9
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
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exactly I have 85o board is 88843 both my hole-cards play. [/ QUOTE ] But how can you then beat quads or be beaten by quads? Just nitting around [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Leave an opening for a straight flush 88854 (854 of same suit). |
#10
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Re: Party Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Analysis
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exactly I have 85o board is 88843 both my hole-cards play. [/ QUOTE ] Both hole cards play, but there's no other qualifying hand -- no straight flush possibilities, that is. Far as I can tell, 85o can't win it, but 86o could. |
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