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#21
10-12-2005, 02:38 PM
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Re: how can we short empire poker?
Fish,
You are missing the point... What exactly do you think it means when Buffett says... that valuations in the market are too high and he can't find anyplace worth investing all his cash... thats called timing... his time frames just happen to be longer than most [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] And this direct quote from the 2004 annual... [ QUOTE ] That’s true as well of our experience in the market with the group. Since our original purchases, valuation gains have somewhat exceeded earnings growth because price/earnings ratios have increased. On a year-to-year basis, however, the business and market performances have often diverged, sometimes to an extraordinary degree. During The Great Bubble, market-value gains far outstripped the performance of the businesses. In the aftermath of the Bubble, the reverse was true. Clearly, Berkshire’s results would have been far better if I had caught this swing of the pendulum. That may seem easy to do when one looks through an always-clean, rear-view mirror. Unfortunately, however, it’s the windshield through which investors must peer, and that glass is invariably fogged. Our huge positions add to the difficulty of our nimbly dancing in and out of holdings as valuations swing. Nevertheless, I can properly be criticized for merely clucking about nose-bleed valuations during the Bubble rather than acting on my views. Though I said at the time that certain of the stocks we held were priced ahead of themselves, I underestimated just how severe the overvaluation was. I talked when I should have walked. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#22
10-13-2005, 02:10 AM
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Re: how can we short empire poker?
[ QUOTE ]
Fish, You are missing the point... What exactly do you think it means when Buffett says... that valuations in the market are too high and he can't find anyplace worth investing all his cash... thats called timing... his time frames just happen to be longer than most [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Sniper, Didn't you get the memo? Every econ prof. in the US signed it: You can't time the market TA doesn't work Markets are efficient Have your TPS reports to me every Monday Mantras. The more you chant them the deeper your faith becomes. eastbay
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#23
10-13-2005, 01:34 PM
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Re: how can we short empire poker?
[ QUOTE ]
it's too late to trade based on the news you heard. price has already been taken into account. [/ QUOTE ] I wonder how Empire has any value now. Didn't their most important players all just move to Party? I.e. assume for every hundred players, they have one full time multitabling maniac (MMM). This guy used to be me.The MMM four tabling for 6 hours a day and generating around $4000 a month in rake. The other 99 players are amateurs, who play a couple times a week, one or two tabling. They generate $100 or so a month in rake. By my (totally made up) calculation, the MMM's would generate almost 30% of Empires revenue. And all of those are leaving now that they can 10 table at Party, get rakeback, and still have acess to the fish. Of course, the amateur players will stay, so Empire should have 70% of their revenues, right? Well what if the MMM's were making up one out of fifty Empire players, or one out of forty? In the latter case, they would have been generating half of the revenues. Frankly from my last experience with Empire (after the split) it seemed as if half the players were MMM's. I wondered if Empire had ever recruited a single fish, or if it had just relied on it's rakeback to recruit all pro players who wanted access to Party's fish tank. It will be very interesting to see what happens next quarter. I wouldn't be shocked if Empires revenues declined anywhere from 30-90%.
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#25
10-13-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: how can we short empire poker?
[ QUOTE ]
Thats why the most successful investors like Buffet dont time the market with day trading. [/ QUOTE ] Hooks, You obviously missed the sarcasm in his post and neglected to read my post that included buffetts own thoughts on timing. In any event, day trading and investing are only two different approaches to the market, of many. While timing is important in them, most classified as "Market Timers" usually focus on an intermediate time frame. If you want to praise buffett, at least understand what he does [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#27
10-14-2005, 12:30 PM
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Re: how can we short empire poker?
[ QUOTE ]
I do know what he does, and obviously I picked up the sarcasm which is why I braught up Warren Buffet to counter act his sarcasm post. [/ QUOTE ] Let me do my impression of you: "You can't make money with buy and hold. Just look at John Henry!" eastbay
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#28
10-14-2005, 05:07 PM
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Re: how can we short empire poker?
[ QUOTE ]
"You can't make money with buy and hold. Just look at John Henry!" eastbay [/ QUOTE ] That's a great example as most of John Henry's funds trail the market. He appears to be an example of a guy who parlayed a few hot (i.e. lucky) years into managing a huge pile of money for others, getting richer from fees even while he generates mediocre returns.
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#29
10-14-2005, 05:37 PM
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Re: how can we short empire poker?
Meanwhile back to the original topic...
[ QUOTE ] I wonder how Empire has any value now. Didn't their most important players all just move to Party?... I wondered if Empire had ever recruited a single fish, or if it had just relied on it's rakeback to recruit all pro players who wanted access to Party's fish tank. [/ QUOTE ] Cat, you fail to understand Empire's business... they could lose almost all their poker customers (which isn't going to happen) and still be profitable [but, of course, worth alot less]. As a side note, they also have recruited many of their own fish.
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