critique my plays please

[ubercuber]

Hi, new to this so be nice, but honest:
NFL

Atl -4.5 x 1.5 units

3 Team 6pt Teaser- couldn't resist!

Pats + 9
Rams + 19.5 (reason I couldn't resist)
Seahawks -3
x .5 unit

I made my first bet last week on Indy -15.5.

Teasers just stupid to play? It seems very winnable, perhaps the beauty of the scheme.

[TheGame1020]

Don't be a square and go big with the public. ATL -4.5 is a dangerous bet.

[playersare]

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ATL -4.5 is a dangerous bet.

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is that why it's -5.5 and leaning -6 now, even at pinnacle?

[null]

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ATL -4.5 is a dangerous bet.

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is that why it's -5.5 and leaning -6 now, even at pinnacle?

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People piling on a favorite and moving the line, wow, that's never happend before.

That's just because of the news about Vick, no? There was a lot of action at 4.5 earlier in the week and the line didn't move until yesterday.

[ QUOTE ]
3 Team 6pt Teaser- couldn't resist!

Pats + 9
Rams + 19.5 (reason I couldn't resist)
Seahawks -3

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These are icky teasers. First off, I get 2-1 playing 3-team, 6-point teasers, so if your payout odds are worse than that, then the whole bet is likely negative EV.

Secondly, if you are getting 2-1, then the whole teaser should have at least a 33% chance of coming through. That means each individual play needs about a 70% chance, as 70%^3 = 34%. So the plays just can't look good, they have to look really good.

Thirdly, in order to be really good, you have to tease certain numbers. There was some debate recently amongst two prominent posters about which numbers can be teased successfully, but the most uncontroversial choice is to cross the 3-pt and 7-pt mark with your tease. That is, teasing a 2-pt underdog to +8, or a -8.5 favourite to -2.5. Crossing the 3 and the 7 is critical, because those are such common margins of victory.

The Pats +9 is no good; is it so inconceivable that they lose by 10? Again, look at what you're getting: with the straight up line, a Denver field goal win is a push, and a Denver touchdown win is a loss. With your teaser, you turn those two events into wins. For a lot of other scenarios though - a Patriots win, a sizeable Denver victory - your teaser hasn't made any dent. Of course NEP +9 looks good, but 70%? I doubt it.

Same problem with Seattle. All you're getting is a push for a Seattle field goal win, and a win for a Seattle 7-pt margin when a straight up bet would have lost. The one-touchdown win is just one scenario, out of many possibilities. I doubt that you're taking your chance of winning up to 70% by teasing it.

The Rams is just no help. All you've captured is a two touchdown, or two touchdown and field goal margin. Your chances of winning are improved, but not nearly improved enough.

So, what teasers make more sense? If you're keen to the 3-to-7, you should notice Oak +2. You can tease that line to +8, and get the 3 and the 7. What's more, Oakland is a home dog, which traditionally is a very good subset to bet. This is a nice teaser.

Carolina is similar: you can tease them from +1.5 to +7.5. Hopefully you can see the value there.

Shakier teasers - which would be disputed by some - might include Miami +4.5 to +10.5. You're not capturing the one field goal margin, but you're getting the 7 and the 10, which is pretty good too given that Miami is a strong defensive team. I wouldn't necessarily recommend this bet, as historically it's not a +EV tease, but if you want to make those decisions case-by-case, that's up to you. Some also might recommend NOS +5.5 to +11.5, but with the same qualifications.

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Pats + 9


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Boooooo [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Second tough road game in a row, I smell another San Diego, 17-41 debacle. But that's just homer thinking [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

GL

[DougOzzzz]

I think the +3 to +9 and -3 to +3 teaser plays aren't that bad. The 3 is a huge number; even getting half of it is worth about as much as getting any other full point (even the 7). In fact, both I think are better than the suggested alternatives of +4.5 to +10.5 or +5.5 to +11.5 (but worse than the ones that cover the WHOLE 3 and 7).

It's the +19.5 play on the Rams that really brings the teaser down.

I guess I should elaborate and say that the central part of teaser value, for me, is both the teaser's chance of success (>70%), but also its relative value over a straight up bet.

Part of the my problem with the 3-to-9s is that I don't think you get the value over betting straight up. In the Broncos game, I would agree that the 3 is a big number: a Bronco win by a field goal is a likely scenario. But by teasing the 3, you're not turning a loss into a win, you're turning a push into a win, and there's less value there. Teasing the 4.5, for instance turns both the 7 and the 10 from a loss into a win, and doesn't affect the 3, which was a win anyway. That's why I prefer those.

There's still nothing like getting the 3-to-7 though, which, as we agree, is the bread and butter of successful teasers.

The Pats wouldn't be a bad teaser addition except that they're +3 +113 on Pinnacle right now. You can also get +3.5 -112/113 on Tradesports and Pinnacle respectively.