Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop II

[locutus2002]

I think a push is a mistake because villain can lay down 2 pair or a lower pair with a str8 draw, and will always call when he is ahead.

[TomHimself]

y not just push?

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
If you call, there is now 1800 in the pot, and you have almost exactly 1800 behind. If the turn is a jack, a queen or a ten, you really have no clue where you are.

If he has one pair, there's a good chance you're not getting any more money out of him regardless of how you play it. If he has two pair, you're probably getting his money (or spliting) no matter how you play it. If he has a set, you're probably going broke no matter how you play it.

I'd avoid giving the free card and push all-in. Note that a push is merely a pot sized raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not all 11 cards kill our action, when QJ or AQ hits a Q here, there are a lot of people that would put another bet in.. but i don't think either of those hands calls a push.

23.4% of the time one of those 11 cards is coming
when it comes i'll say there are three equally likely situations:
A) Hits their hand, you're 9.09% to win, 3.41% to tie.
.0909*3600 = +327.24
.0341 * 800= +30.69
.875 * 1800=-1575
for -1217.07

B) Gives them smaller two pair and you get 1 bet out of them and they fold to a push.
+2200
C) It kills all action, and they fold.
+1800
--

which averages to +927.64 when the scare card comes.
this happens 23.4% of the time... so = +217.07

--

The other 76.6% of the time you're probably going to get more $ out of them, how much is debate-able... but for the point of this, i'll just say you get the rest of the money in, and you're a 71% favorite, vs TT+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo

so .71*3600 = +2556
.29 * -1800 = -522
for +2034 76.6% of the time for: +1558

--

So those added together are +1775.07 for calling the flop bet.


Now to compare to pushing the flop:

The range i say he'll call your push with: KK+,JJ,AJs+,QTs,AJo+,QTo

is 6.2% of possible hands,

and the range that he minraises with (or my guess at it) is:
KK+,JJ-TT,A7s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
is 16.6% of hands

so using those numbers, ,he'd call your push 6.2/16.6 or 37% of the time.

So 63% of the time you'll win 1800
for .63 * 1800 = +1134

37% of the time you'll be a 45% dog.
.45*3600 = +1620
.55*-1800 = -990

for +630 * 37% = +233

so pushing the flop is = +1367.


So if the stuff i said was right (which is wasn't, but hopefully it wasn't too far off)

then calling the flop bet will be +408 more profitable.

Any thouoghts?

[Guelph]

I think the minraise is an attempt to get us to check behind on the turn with his 1 pair + straight draw.

I get it all in now. If he's drawing to the straight, he wants to see both cards, and we want him to pay as much as possible to get them.

If a Q or T fall, we don't know if that gave him the straight or 2 pair, and getting it all in right away prevents us from getting away from a winner.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Fish-thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

oxymoron

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the minraise is an attempt to get us to check behind on the turn with his 1 pair + straight draw.

I get it all in now. If he's drawing to the straight, he wants to see both cards, and we want him to pay as much as possible to get them.

If a Q or T fall, we don't know if that gave him the straight or 2 pair, and getting it all in right away prevents us from getting away from a winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we assume that we are shallow enough as to not fold this hand no matter what the remaining action is, then it's simply a matter of picking the line that will get the most chips from the range of hands that we are beating.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the minraise is an attempt to get us to check behind on the turn with his 1 pair + straight draw.

I get it all in now. If he's drawing to the straight, he wants to see both cards, and we want him to pay as much as possible to get them.

If a Q or T fall, we don't know if that gave him the straight or 2 pair, and getting it all in right away prevents us from getting away from a winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we assume that we are shallow enough as to not fold this hand no matter what the remaining action is, then it's simply a matter of picking the line that will get the most chips from the range of hands that we are beating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo! I would like ZJs line more if I ever had any intention of folding. I dont. I would only push if I thought he would call enough to make up for the times when he bluffs the turn. IMO, there is enough of his range, that he will think he is value betting until we play back at him. If we just call, he has every reason to think that AJ, KJ are good. I think people are underestimating how often we will see a 2nd barell on the turn. That is part of the point of the min-raise bluff.

Ok, that small one was for "value"...Now he will fold when I push here!!!!....oh sh!t, he called.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call and let him tie himself to the pot by betting out the turn. If a Q or T comes on the turn and he checks, I check behind and call a river bet. If a Q/T comes on the turn and he bets into me, I can base my decision on the size of his bet and possibly find a fold (more likely if a T comes than a Q)

If a blank comes on the turn and he bets into me I can obviously push. If he checks, I would bet 1k-1300 or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

A pot sized bet would already be an allin. You seem to assume like there's room left for a bet and a raise, and imply that the bet wouldn't auto commit the better. Maybe you should take another look at the stack sizes at pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know the stack/pot sizes. I don't really know what you are getting at. If I let him keep the betting lead, he'll committ himself where he's not committed now.

The flop pot was 600. If we call, it will be 2k.
He's probably not committed if we reraise now and we let him off hands that are virtually drawing dead (for the price of sometimes letting him cheaply see a possible gutter).

I just don't see the benefit of reraising this flop if we already know that we are going to the felt.

WAWB.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I suggested not betting the flop. If he puts us on an Ace and he's got J/J then we're in trouble and we're likely losing all our money here.

He's done the ol' check min-re-raise thing I hate so much. It's like, THE gayest move ever.

So, let's look at a possible range of hands for villian:

A/K (unlikely, but possible, so we're tied)

A/Q (we're ahead, he has four outs to a straight)

A/J (he's behind but likes his hand and will give us all his chips)

A/10 (he's behind and has four outs to a straight)

10/10 (not likely going to check-raise us here)

J/J (we're in trouble and this hand is certainly plausible)

Q/Q (unlikely he'll check-raise in this spot either, probably just smooth call)

K/K (unlikely, since we would have received a re-raise pre-flop)

A/A (perhaps trying to trap with this monster, but unlikely given that we have an Ace and there's an Ace out)

I think in most spots we're well ahead of our opponent. But, his min-re-raise looks like he expects us to push against him. This is a tough spot. Our hand is extremely strong, but Villian is making a play that just screams he wants to be played with.

If you go with the psychological aspect of the game, it looks like you might want to lay this down, he's representing a set.

If you go with the mathematical aspect of the game, chances are that we're ahead of most of our opponents holdings, and we should either smooth-call and let him push the turn, or we should push and get all the money in now.

I'd lean more towards the mathematical aspect of the game here and either push or smooth-call and let him push on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

if that's his range why in the world would you want to push now?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has one pair, there's a good chance you're not getting any more money out of him regardless of how you play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's official, you've lost it.