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#21
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[ QUOTE ] this smells. why is this guy betting 450 into a 300 pot? [/ QUOTE ] Because he sucks and wants to 'buy' the pot and doesn't have a real hand that he thinks he can make a lot of money from. [/ QUOTE ]If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? |
#22
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I am somewhere between the second and third option. [/ QUOTE ] What percent of the time do you have to succeed to do this with a truly air hand? Obviously when you get called you basically have zero pot equity. Any time your ICM $EV > 0? How much cushion do you want to give yourself? You can never be entirely sure of your opponents call range. |
#23
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only if he knows his opp is the kind of player that would see this overbet as weakness and try to steal the pot
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#24
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If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it's a very smooth move that nails people in mid-high limit cash games since they love picking off weird overbets on relatively dry boards; but at a low-limit SNG you need to know you have a LAGgy playmaker behind you who can read a board, or you're losing value (that is if you have the 9). |
#25
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] this smells. why is this guy betting 450 into a 300 pot? [/ QUOTE ] Because he sucks and wants to 'buy' the pot and doesn't have a real hand that he thinks he can make a lot of money from. [/ QUOTE ]If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? [/ QUOTE ] I believe it was Lorinda that showed a bunch of examples where she moved all-in overbetting the pot, w/ monster hands (AA preflop, sets on the flop) and got called by extremely marginal hands thinking they were picking off bluffs, I have started to do this at the lower levels (22s. 33s) and it has been working with some success. |
#26
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If this thinking is correct, shouldn't a good player sometimes overbet with a set? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] only if he knows his opp is the kind of player that would see this overbet as weakness and try to steal the pot [/ QUOTE ] This is why regular games can be so much fun, you get into this third level thinking. Online at my limits I don't see people enough to know what they are thinking. You can get a sense of whether they are any good or not but rarely more than that. |
#28
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I have been doing this, but more often when they bet minimum or something small into the pot after completing the sb.
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#29
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Ive been picking off some bluffls lately (river especially) where I will raise (90% sure I am ahead) all-in after they bet, say 600. mY raise is 200-300 more and they actually fold! (2000+ in pot) this has happened 3-4 times in last couple of days and one thing about picking off a bluff is that if you think they are on one, your FE doesnt matter...they will fold. NH [/ QUOTE ] one of these was against me Im pretty sure, I called the flop and turn and raised the river less than all in trying to represent like I wanted a call and you pushed but I still had 400 or so behind so I folded and I ended up busting you later when you pushed in with 4 6 or something [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
#30
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I feel like, at the lower levels against donks, you're getting called too often with hands like 33 and AJ to make it +EV (although even then, it might be +EV, but marginally so). A donkey open-complete can mean anything, IMO - I'm not surprised if this play gets called by a donk AK-A10 or a mid/low pocket pair.
I don't hate the play, either - but I've seen one too many donks open-complete with AJ (thinking they're slowplaying it), only to call off their whole stack whether or not the flop hits their hand or not. I'd only use it if I had a some confidence in a read. For what it's worth, I couldn't agree more that the bettor there almost never has a 6. If this is a $22-$55, I like the play more. So to answer your question, I would only use it against players I thought were mediocre; I'm scared of good, solid players overbet-trapping with a 9, and I'm scared of complete donks calling with crap/having a 9 and giving no thought to bet sizes --> relation to the pot. |
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