Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop II

[Sluss]

Sometimes a pause before a min raise means that he is trying to trap. Of course it also could mean he was doing some math and typing in a number that ended up in the chat box and then the timer beeped so he quickly just hit the Raise button. Or his ass was itchy and he scratched before hitting the raise button.

Given a normal play here with only 30 seconds to think I push over the top. He folds and I only get 1500 then bitch later when I'm shortstacked.

I really think he has some sort of a drawing kind of hand. AQ, A10, KQ, J10 or he thinks he is being tricky with a KJ, AJ or AK. A hand that has us crushed (AA, KK, JJ, Q10) would probably be setting more of a trap here with a smooth call. The mini raise is more of a, "I have a piece, do you?"

A call here does a few different things. First of all it is going to take a great read to interpret a scare card. Because Villain is likely to think he has made a better hand if he has J10 or A10 and a 10 hits the turn. That's my weak/tight fear.

In all reality the best chip extraction method is probably to call here and then raise the turn leadout or lead out yourself for half the pot on the turn. Sure sometimes your going to be drawn out on. Sometimes you are going to be afraid you were drawn out on and consider laying down your top two. But at this point all of my money is going in and I really want all of the villain's chips going in so why not do it slowly instead of losing your prey. You've got to gamble to win right? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Exitonly]

you keep saying how it's gonna take a great read on the turn... but a) it's only gonna be a scare card like 1/4 the time... b) when it's a scare card, it's only gonna be the 'right' scare card for villain like 30% of the time.

So yea, i'm not going to worry about making the read, i accept the consequences by just calling (the chancec that i let him beat me) because i think you make up for it in the extrra money you get out of him.

I dont thin khe's calling a push on the flop often at all, and i think the range that calls the push has you beat.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
AA, KK, JJ, and AK all reraise preflop.
QT has no desire to play a pot w similiar stack size out of position, against an UTG raise .


[/ QUOTE ] A smooth call out of AK or JJ would be pretty normal here. The pot is heads up already. I have even seen people call here with AA or KK. If I know the villain is tight with his raising standards from EP I might even do it myself.

And if you think that Q10, K10, J10 don't "defend their blind, because the graphic on the WPT says that's what most pros do"

[Stipe_fan]

I don't think he would min-raise with a made straight or a set versuses one opponent. I think that he would think he would lose his only customer with this type of bet. This has to be an informational bet. I think raising would probably price him out of the hand.

The range of hands that I put him on is AK, AJ, KJ,A10, possibily AQ, QJ. My read is no set, no straight. His min-raise is purely informational. There is a 10% chance he has a JJ for a bottom set. But I still contend he doesn't reraise with a set until the turn.

The scare card for me is a Q and maybe a 10. If a Q does come on the turn, I will make one stab at the pot and fold if pressured.


Stipe

[rockythecat99]

I flat call this and make sure all the money goes in on the turn. I think this miniraise is more Ax or KJ AJ than Q10,JJ. I flat call this so that he bets again on the turn. Another option would be to reraise him here a small amount. My read is he has a weaker two pair or an ace, I think we are ahead here.

[ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put the villain on now? Which ties into the question of what do you make of his mini-raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
Now I thinking that he paired one or both cards on the flop. If he paired one card he has 4 to a straight. Or He hit a set of J's. Or he flopped the straight So, hands are AK-AT,KQ,KJ,KT,JQ,JT, QQ-TT or QT. I'm taking out AA and KK given the low probability (only one had combination of each) given my hand and the board.

[ QUOTE ]

Do you fold, call, or raise? If you raise, to what amount?

[/ QUOTE ]
This is where it becomes interesting. I can't fold top two with a min reraise. I'm going to raise back at him another 600 to let him know I have a hand and give him odds of 3.5 to 1 to call, not enough if he's behind. I'm sure a lot of people are pushing here, but I'm not ready to yet. Given the range of hands there's a 75% chance I'm ahead.

As noted yesterday, this gives us the luxury of more time to think and is not the same as we would react online with 30 seconds to respond. Plus, a day of additional thought, reflection, and analysis has changed my position somewhat from yesterday, but not to the side of the crowd ready to push at any playback.

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming you don't fold what's your plan for the rest of the hand (or how has your plan changed since your last response)?

[/ QUOTE ]

After this 600, half of my stack is in the pot. But if I'm a good player, better than the most, I can come back from this if I lose. A push reraise would have to put a higher probability on him having the set or the straight. I read yesterday in one of my books that if you are at a new table assume all players are loose unless proven otherwise (Small Stakes Hold Em, but this analogy can easily apply to online play). This philosophy calls for an automatic call against a push. So, If I'm allowed to change what I said yesterday without taking heat from the other members, I'm calling a push. (Realistically, this is most likely how I would respond online with only 30 secs to think and no other read on the player)

If he calls and 4th st is Q or T, I'm playing cautious.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, this is about as WAWB as it gets. either we are drawing to 4 outs or he is drawing to 6 at the absolute most (w/ JT or JQ) but more likely 4 or 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

WAWB, good point.

With position I like smoothcalling here, hoping to induce a big turn bet/bluff by villain. If this happens, I push, if he checks the turn then I bet between ½ and 3/4 pot, one free card is enough even if villain only has a few outs.

If one of those 11 annoying turn cards (Q, J or T) come then I check or call small bets from here on.

[woodguy]

I have no plans on folding this hand, so my only goal is to get more of his chips in the pot.

If I'm beat, I'm beat and I'm too shallow to get away from it.

Adanthar has a point that some hands that may call your push here may not put more $$$ in the pot if one of 11 cards come off.

I think I push as it looks least like it wants a call.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Cactus Jack]

Interesting hand, now. Well done.

I'm with Andathar on this one, too. I'm not worried about his hand very much. I put him on at worse AJ, maybe KJ but that's a stretch. I think his donk factor reaches its zenith with his call PF. He could be on JJ, too, which would have called, but would he be raising here? Probably not. QQ is possible, and he's dancing on his donkey hooves if he's raising that flop. Most likely, he only thinks he's got a shot, or he's taking his last shot.

A raise might push him out. Calling gives him another chance to throw off his chips, but he probably would only bet if a card that makes his hand comes on the turn. If I'm ahead, this might be the only chance I've got to get any more of his chips. A push might look to him like I want him to fold. If he's got AJ or KJ, he might not be able to get away from it yet.

I'll push it, all in.

(Which is probably not the way it's going to play out since we've got 2 more rounds coming.) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

CJ

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
AA, KK, JJ, and AK all reraise preflop.
QT has no desire to play a pot w similiar stack size out of position, against an UTG raise .

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, this is a case of assuming the other guy plays like you would. There is no reason on God's green earth to assume that an unknown online player thinks about the fact that you have a similar stack size or that the raise came from UTG. They are equally likely to think "QTs sure is a pretty hand."

I don't think you can be afraid of QT here, because there's so many other hands he could have, but I certainly don't think you can afford to discount it altogether.