50NL: AT, flop mid pair

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If he's against a set, is he not a 2.35:1 dog?

If he calls to 20 that's 15.5 to win 27, right?

If he pushes that's 37.5 to win 49, right?

I don't think he has the odds vs a set. It would be tough for me to put him on less than a set given the pfr and if he does have less than a set then he is a poor player imo and you can get his money later.

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That assumes he knew he had 2 pair instead of a set. I would instantly put villain on a set.

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are you kidding me?

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If he's against a set, is he not a 2.35:1 dog?

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TT seems unlikely since we have one of the T's, and QQ is unlikley cause villain limp/called.
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pokenum -h ac tc - 7h 7s -- td 7c qc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qc 7c Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Tc 307 31.01 683 68.99 0 0.00 0.310
7s 7h 683 68.99 307 31.01 0 0.00 0.690


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If he calls to 20 that's 15.5 to win 27, right?

If he pushes that's 37.5 to win 49, right?

I don't think he has the odds vs a set. It would be tough for me to put him on less than a set given the pfr and if he does have less than a set then he is a poor player imo and you can get his money later.

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You're right, we don't have odds vs. a set.

We are assuming that
(chances he has a set)*(0.3) + (chances he has 2pr)*(0.55) + (chances he has other garbage)*(big favorite) = +EV

It's just not THAT likely that he has a set.