Hypothetical Question

UMTerp · #1 10-11-2005, 12:42 PM

Wow, intuitively I'd think it's a LOT closer to $0 than $1500, and I'm not even 100% sure that it's a positive number (though I think it marginally is). One of us is way off.

TheCodeDog · #2 10-11-2005, 12:47 PM

It seems that if you demonstrate that you're always going to call down, you're going to win the blinds an awful lot.

Diplomat · #3 10-11-2005, 12:54 PM

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It seems that if you demonstrate that you're always going to call down, you're going to win the blinds an awful lot.

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I agree, this is a very good point.

-Diplomat

arcticfox · #4 10-11-2005, 12:52 PM

I would turn this around and ask what hands you are prepared to call face up Kings with? then work out the probability that any of the opponents will call (so that you don't just pick up the blinds) and that when they do call what the probability is that they hit their hand on the flop to be worthwhile continuing calling/raising the kings bets.

There is no way the EV of having kings every hand is close to 0 even when face up.

UMTerp · #5 10-11-2005, 12:57 PM

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I would turn this around and ask what hands you are prepared to call face up Kings with?

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Let me think about this for a while.

UMTerp · #6 10-11-2005, 03:04 PM

FWIW, after reading some of your explanations and thinking about it some more, I realized my thinking was flawed before. I'm still not sure it's $1500 profitable, but it certainly is a profitbale game (over $500/hr I'd think).

In a no limit situation, this situation could certainly be -$EV if the stacks were deep enough, but I guess that's a different question altogether.

I also ignored the "typical game" disclaimer initially and assumed that your opponents would be playing optimally against you. That made a big difference as well, as Barron brought up some excellent points regarding that aspect of the question.

mmbt0ne · #7 10-11-2005, 04:39 PM

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Wow, intuitively I'd think it's a LOT closer to $0 than $1500, and I'm not even 100% sure that it's a positive number (though I think it marginally is). One of us is way off.

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You're going to be able to steal the blinds a lot. Like, a lot a lot. Also, there are going to be times when people play you with a draw, and they don't hit. I have no idea what the number is, but this is interesting so I'll try to calculate something, sometime.