A shocking discovery..... shocking to me at least

[cartman]

An AK board is one of the only exceptions I think. Maybe my methodology is flawed. See if this makes sense:

Assume opponents raising range from his specific position this hand is 20%. From that I estimated his range to be:
A8+, KT+, QJ, A3s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, 55.

I have 23.

To estimate the chances that I am ahead on the turn when the board is AQ28 for instance, I just entered a river card of a 4 which I thought was the ultimate blank. Pokerstove claims that if I showed down my 23 on the final board of AQ284, I would have the winner 21.2% of the time. So I think that is a reasonable estimate of how often I am ahead on the turn. (This is the key assumption to the entire endeavor in my opinion. Is it valid?)

Assuming he open-raised preflop, only I call in the big blind, and I check call the flop, then after he bets the turn the pot will contain 4.25BB. So if he bets the river (of course he won't always) I am getting 5.25:2 odds to call down. If I estimate that I have 5 outs when I'm behind and that he has 6 outs when I'm ahead, then I need to be ahead on the turn 22.2% of the time.

That's awfully close to the 21.2% estimate that I get from pokerstove. Changing the Q to a K in my example, plunges this figure to 15.7% and makes it a clear fold, but on an AQ or AJ board it looks like a toss up (pokerstove gives 21.2% for both) and on an AT (28.4%) or a KQ (32.7%) board it is a very clear call.

Is there a flaw in my method?

Is my assumption above valid?

What do you guys think?


Thanks,
Cartman