How Bad?

[slider77]

How bad a streak can you get on just due to bad luck? Is there a rule of thumb like if you lose more than 50 or 100 BB you might be playing badly and that it's not just bad luck.


I am taking a beating for 3 nights straight. I'm almost immediately down 10 BBs 30 minutes into playing every time.

I'm losing with JJ, AQ, AK, after hitting the flop. A lot of situations where I hold like J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] with a flop of

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

and either someone hits a stright or a better 2 pair on the river.

This case of hitting a pair with an overcard on the board is killing me.

I'm thinking I need to raise more - prevent players from going for their hand. Although sometimes I'm already beat by the overcard. So maybe folding more?

I don't know. Last week I thought I was really playing well. Can I possibly not be playing as well like 4 days later?

[gavrilo]

It's entirely possible you aren't playing as good as you were 4 days ago. Maybe something else on your mind, you need to spot this and not play that day or deal with it, whatever it may be. Oh and losing streaks can last an extraordinary long time.
My longest run of cold cards was 19 straight sessions(ranging 4-10 hours per session) where the best hand I made was two pair(and even then, only twice) out of all those sessions.

[Bob T.]

Any losing streak is probably a good reason to examine your play. I should probably add, any time you have a winning streak that seems out of the ordinary, you might also want to take a look at what you are doing.

I think that almost every month at some point in time I have at least a 50 big bet slide, probably every other month a 100 big bet streak, once every four months 150 big bets, and over the last 3 years, once every 6 months, a losing month.

I am a part time player about 100 - 150 table hours per month, if you put in more hours, and you are a winning player, your chances of having a losing month will go down, but at the same time, you also have a better chance of experiencing those little setbacks.

[slider77]

OK, thanks for the responses.

Maybe the fact that I won so much over the weekend could have affected my play now. Then, I was hitting so much on the river and turn that I might have been biased towards hanging around too long in a hand - which could be hurting me now.

One thing I'm not doing though is playing looser on my starting hands to "catch up". I'm definitely conscious of that. But I think if anything I might be snake-bitten a little and am not playing hands aggressively enough once I hit a big pair or 2 pair - and allowing players to constantly beat me on the turn and river.

Although here's my latest beat:

I have KQ

flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I'm in late position , raise , and get re-raised by an EP - only 2 of us remain. If I have a KQ, I'm thinking he is at least 4 to a flush or maybe flopped a flush.

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Bet, call.

River: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Bet, call.

He has a A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - wins on the river with a crappy starting hand. Obviously should have raised him.

I guess the best way to describe what is happeneing is that "if there is a chance a player has AQ, or JJ, or a KT or whatever combo beats me - they always seem to have it now. Before it was more like 30-40% of the time they have the goods.

Actually, if I wasn't so mad, it would be interesting to notice how amazing the cards can go bad.

[Dagrims]

If you're putting him on a flush after seeing that river card, why would you bet? Since he didn't raise on the turn, I'd assume he hasn't hit the flush yet, but after seeing that club on the river, I'd check and then fold if he bets. It saves 1 BB to use later.

Chris

[Pat C]

Ironically, I contemplated this question this morning. Let me start by stating that I love the technical side of the game and often seek more strategic reasons to explain a losing session. There may well be some in your case, but I'm not capable of answering them; what I can offer is my own introspection, hope it helps.
My past two sessions were plagued by beats on the river. In both sessions, I found myself easily dismissing the early bad beats as anomalies. However, continuing 2nd place finishes to players I felt shouldn't have been originally involved in the pot or continued through the river (due to card selection, position, pot odds), I feel really affected my psychology. Unfortunately, I failed to be honest with myself at the time; although I was aware of the threat that a bruised psyche could have on my game, my pride blinded me.
I kept telling myself "these guys aren't that good, the cards are just falling all over them, my time is coming and I'm going to catch them when their guard is down." Meanwhile, my game was becoming tight/weak without my knowledge. When my opportunites did come, I wasn't in the game. Of course, after a goods night rest and ample time to lick the wounds, these considerations became a whole lot clearer.
I cannot speculate to your intestinal fortitude, these beats affect everyone differently. But consider this: Even though I'm confident I have winning skills, I have to recognize I don't always play winning poker. The reason I mention my recent mental lapse is that this morning I wondered if their was some form of a "stop-loss" parameter that should be applied per session. I wasn't able to answer that question, but did figure out it didn't matter if I wasn't in the right frame of mind while playing. I guess honesty with myself is the first problem to fix. Sorry I can't give a more scientific answer to your question, but I hope this helps some. Others may disagree, but in the future I think I'm going to take a least a small break or request a table change if I start off poorly.
Best Regards
Pat