Take a back seat CFB, its MLB time

[whipsaw]

I love all four lines for the early two games today (I'm not touching STL/SDG today). Let's start with the 4pm Yanks/Angels tilt.

NYY/LAA Moneyline

The Halos are sitting somewhere around +180-200. That's obscene, and should be pounded today big time. It might even creep up over +200 once we get to game time. Washburn's career numbers against NYY are pretty good- 3-2, 2.72 ERA in 6 starts - and he has averaged over 7 IP per start against NYY, which will help out that bullpen that got used last night. Washburn is also a road warrior, going 6-2 with an ERA over a half a run better than his overall.

On the other side of the ball, we have Chacon. Somehow, he's getting a -200 line with an 0-1 record and an ERA of NINE in 2 career starts against the Angels. He's been mediocre at home (4-4, ERA a full run higher than his overall, although that might have something to do with the fact that he played for COL for the 1st half of the season). His upside is that he closed the year strong, with three really good starts down the stretch (1 ER in 22.2 IP his last three starts).

Add to the stats the intangibles of LAA generally beating NYY in the postseason since 1997, and a chance to close out the series without having to face Mussina again, and I LOVE the Angels at this line.

NYY/LAA Over/Under

The line is set at 10, and I think the clear play is the UNDER. Chacon has been pitching well, and Washburn pitches well against the Yankees. I also like to take unders in games after serious offensive explosions like last night. I don't think these teams go off like that again, and something like 4-3 or 5-3 seems like a more reasonable finish considering the pitching. Dale Scott, the ump for this game, also favors the unders, especially with respect to these two teams. Go under.

Switching to the NL, we have:

ATL/HOU Moneyline

I like the road dog again, sitting around +130-40 in most places. Could get bigger as the money comes in on Oswalt tonight. Again, this line just baffles me. Jorge Sosa has never started against the Astros, which should help him, at least initially. But look at his road numbers this year! 9-0, ERA of 1.81! Atlanta hasn't lost a road start of his since early August against the Cards (when Sosa went 7 scoreless and the bullpen blew up). I really like Sosa in this spot.

Other side of the ball-Oswalt. Again, I don't know how Oswalt is that big of a favorite considering his history against the Braves. Five starts, 0-2 with an ERA of 6.42. Furcal, Giles, and Andruw all have hit him very well. Oswalt's upside is that he's pitched generally very well at home, going 12-2 with an ERA almost a half run better than his overall.

On the whole, I think this is a coinflip situation, and I'm taking the wood with ATL.

ATL/HOU O/U

The line is currently at 7.5, and I think the easy play is the OVER. Oswalt is clearly driving this line down, and like I said earlier, he's getting too much respect against a team that he doesn't deserve it against. Furthermore, Atlanta's bullpen is far from spectacular, so they will help get the score up. Sosa is good on the road, but this is the playoffs, so he might give up some runs early when he's still jittery. Both games have gone over in this series, which means these offenses are not being given enough credit. Bruce Dreckman, the BHP for this game, has also been good for the over lately. Overall, this line just looks too low. Go over.

Anyone else have any comments/angles for these games or the late night STL/SDG game?

[kyro]

I have a hard time taking this entire thing seriously when I read...

[ QUOTE ]
On the other side of the ball, we have Chacon. Somehow, he's getting a -200 line with an 0-1 record and an ERA of NINE in 2 career starts against the Angels. He's been mediocre at home (4-4, ERA a full run higher than his overall, although that might have something to do with the fact that he played for COL for the 1st half of the season).

[/ QUOTE ]

with...

[ QUOTE ]
The line is set at 10, and I think the clear play is the UNDER. Chacon has been pitching well

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but I don't see how you can contradict yourself so blatantly

[DougOzzzz]

No comment on the rest but I have to think the LAA bet is good. I am all for fading Chacon. There is nothing impressive about his stats for the Yankees besides his ERA. He has the awesome combination of a low K rate, a high BB rate, a low GB/FB ratio, and a high line drive percentage! Sooner or later those line drives aren't going to be hit right at a defender. This guy has "regression to the mean" written all over him.

[scalf]

also lovin' the angels

lol

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
Chacon. Somehow, he's getting a -200 line with an 0-1 record and an ERA of NINE in 2 career starts against the Angels

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he is a Yankee. I don't think he ever got favored as a Rockie? But the Yankees are basically unbeatable. They can hit and hit and hit! But if all the players changed uniforms before the game the line wouldn't change because the Yankees can't be beat. They are basically unbeatable. Watch ESPN sometime they will tell you all about it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

No totals for me but I like the sides. My Angels play will be small though since I have a gob already riding on the series. Angels are up over 200 now and the runline is probably a decent play as well. But I'd much rather pile on than hedge. I don't like all the pitches Escobar and Shields threw yesterday but even tired they are better than any Yankee relievers sans Rivera and Rodriguez has him covered.