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#1
10-02-2003, 03:53 AM
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Natedogg\'s 5 Star ***** gold pick of the month
One thought first: It's possible that the Bears are over-rated.
Tampa/Indy under 37.5 Tampa scored 31 and Indy scored 55 in their last games. The key here is that the defenses gave up 10 and 21 respectively, and some of that for Indy was garbage at the end when the second stringers were just playing for pride. 7 of Atlanta's 10 pts vs. Tampa's D came after Tampa turned it over on their own 2 yard line. Indy's last game on grass was 9-6. Neither team's offense will do well versus a competent cover 2. Tampa has the better D but Indy has the better offense, so I don't want to call a side. But I expect a 12-10 final score one way or another. The 37 is a key number and you're getting the hook for free, take it. The FIVE STAR BONUS MONSTER TRUCK GAME: This game narrowly missed being the 5 star pick, it's that good: Minnesota/Atlanta over 43 Will Doug Johnson perform as poorly as he has done in the past two weeks vs. the NFL's top two defenses? I don't think so. Minnesota's defense looked great versus a struggling Detroit and at home vs. a disintegrating SF, but taking on Atlanta on the road will be a different story for this defense. I think any team's offense that plays Tampa and Carolina back to back will be very under-rated. I expect both teams to break 20, possibly by halftime. 5 Star Pick runner ups: Seattle / GB under 46 The Chicago blowout is just what the doctor ordered for us gamblers. Everyone looks like a championship offense vs. the Bears, even the 9ers looked unstoppable. Seattle D will bring GB offense back to earth and conversely, their own offense really hasn't been that dominant. I expect a defensive battle. Seattle +2.5 at GB Repeat after me: Holmgren is twice the coach that Sherman is. Green Bay is only 1-1 vs. the two worst teams in the league, and I'm not counting DETROIT which is certainly part of a multi-way tie for 3rd worst. GB is currently WAY over-rated. The last time Seattle came to Green Bay they were a losing team and they humiliated the Packers on MNF. Holmgren will know how to beat Favre. It's too early in the year for the frozen trundra to be a factor. Seattle wins it. A real nasty sounding pick here: New England +1 vs. Tennessee Tennessee won real, real ugly last week. They have looked terrible on the road to be honest. Brady is just not as bad as he looked in Buffalo and Washington. It's bounce-back time for New England and nobody schemes better than Belicheck. New England is running the ball better than Tennessee. Being a dog at home for Tennessee's second road game in a row? I'll take it. Cleveland +7 at Pit Last two regular season games were decided by field goals. Cleveland is WAY under-rated right now. Their defense has done quite well except for one record-breaking meltdown in Baltimore. In their other games they have been stout against the run believe it or not. The Steelers don't have anything remotely as good as the Baltimore running game. Couch's career is on the line in this game. It will be close and come down to a field goal, like always. All comments or discouragements are welcome, even WildBill who talked me out of a winner last week! just joking with ya WB, I love getting your feedback and you have made me think about things I never would have considered on my own. You are one of the few reasons I'm not a huge money loser anymore. 
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#2
10-02-2003, 07:38 AM
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Re: Natedogg\'s 5 Star ***** gold pick of the month
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]gr8 picks...almost as good as having 5 goy's going on the same day...but what kind of guarantee do you offer if the news agencies get the scores screwwed up and one of your lox loses..(shudder)??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
tia.. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] gl [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#3
10-02-2003, 10:35 AM
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Re: Natedogg\'s 5 Star ***** gold pick of the month
I love all your picks except the Titans. McNair is just the man and will dominate the NE secondary. He has a heatlhy knee now and I look for him to run a bit and loosen up the D.
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