PLO8, Make this fold?

emptyshell · #1 10-06-2005, 01:59 AM

Villain is ridiculously loose preflop (VPIP 81, PFR 7), but reasonably tight postflop.

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
BUT ( $845.82 ), SB ( $360.45 ), Hero ( $387.70),
UTG ( $274.28 ), UTG+1 ( $605.08 ),
CO ( $189.95 ), MP1 ( $147.40 )

Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
++--++

SB posts $2.
Hero posts $4.
UTG calls $4, 1 fold, MP1 calls $4, 3 folds,
Hero checks

Flop: (13.30) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks.
UTG checks.
MP1 checks.

Turn: (13.30) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks.
UTG bets $5.
MP1 calls $5.
Hero raises $15.
UTG calls $10.
MP1 folds.

River: (46.55) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets $25.
UTG raises $121.55.
Hero ???

Wintermute · #2 10-06-2005, 02:04 AM

No. You bet like a pussy for a purpose, take all his chips. If he has it, break something.

#3 10-06-2005, 02:44 AM

no way i could lay it down personally, more often than not u are raking chips to a gimp flush, but i haven't played a lot of 08 so the straight flush still seems to rare to worry about

gergery · #4 10-07-2005, 01:15 AM

I would strongly suspect you are beat but don't think i could lay it down.

-g

Wintermute · #5 10-07-2005, 01:26 AM

wait, do you strongly suspect he's beat becuase of the action, or because he bothered to post it? I mean, there's a 95% chance he is beat given that he posted this, but in the game I would assign a much, much lower likelihood to that case. If you held a gun to my head, I would say 40% or so.

gergery · #6 10-07-2005, 01:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
wait, do you strongly suspect he's beat becuase of the action, or because he bothered to post it? I mean, there's a 95% chance he is beat given that he posted this, but in the game I would assign a much, much lower likelihood to that case. If you held a gun to my head, I would say 40% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he posted it, I very strongly suspect he's beat.

Because of the action, I suspect he is beat and would never raise. Against a few I could fold. Against most I make a crying call. Against a number I happily call expecting a bluff.

What hands do you think are going to be raising without the bluff A, and with only 5th nuts or whatever it is?

-g

Wintermute · #7 10-07-2005, 01:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]

What hands do you think are going to be raising without the bluff A, and with only 5th nuts or whatever it is?

[/ QUOTE ]
K-high. I might not raise, given the way the action went down, but I'd never fold in this spot to someone who sees virtually every flop. Maybe he's tight postflop as ES said, but VPIP 81 is an inidication that this guy has some serious misunderstandings of how to win at poker.

kyleb · #8 10-07-2005, 08:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wait, do you strongly suspect he's beat becuase of the action, or because he bothered to post it? I mean, there's a 95% chance he is beat given that he posted this, but in the game I would assign a much, much lower likelihood to that case. If you held a gun to my head, I would say 40% or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he posted it, I very strongly suspect he's beat.

Because of the action, I suspect he is beat and would never raise. Against a few I could fold. Against most I make a crying call. Against a number I happily call expecting a bluff.

What hands do you think are going to be raising without the bluff A, and with only 5th nuts or whatever it is?

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

You seriously, SERIOUSLY underestimate the number of people on various poker skins that go broke with the sucker flush.