Castillo/Corrales II

Tuds75 · #1 10-03-2005, 11:33 PM

PPV Fight/Rematch of the Year is here on Sat.

I am liking the over as well. These guys got high KO percentages, so that fear does exist, but the OVER looks pretty safe.

I like Castillo in the bout. He should have won the first fight, only Chico continous spitting out of the mouthguard saved him from a 10 count. Castillo is tough as nail. The only reason he lost the first fight is because he is so tough he wouldnt go down, but stayed up and used the ropes. If he would of went down he would of had 10 secs to recoup, instead the ref can to call it beacuse Castillo was out on the ropes. Castillo will lure Chico into a war again, but that could happen in the 3rd or 4th rd, instead of the 2nd like last fight. Castillo is a VERY good fighter and should not be overlooked. I think this one should be EVEN for both fighter's to win, so anything better either way is value (Castillo +120).

Also, don't overlook the trilogy factor. Boxing is built on Triologys. Tarver/Jones, Gatti/Ward, Ali/Frazier, Bowe/Holyfield. The RJJ/Tarver fight is prime example how a 3rd fight between 2 fighters can really be built and hyped. But for a trilogy to happen Castillo needs to win, so if this fight went to the cards and close Castillo might get a constroversial dec. so they can do it again. Examples of this are Barrera/Morrales and Gatti/Ward where in the first the guy who should have won lost and in both rematches the same thing happen but for the other fighter.

Stayed Tuned for Arce/Hussien prediction. * This fight could COULD possibly upstage Castillo/Corrales.

Tuds

ThaHero · #2 10-04-2005, 09:16 AM

Good analysis Tuds. My brother also mentioned to me about the trilogy factor. He said unless there is a KO he strongly believes the cards will rule in Castillo's favor. I am falling asleep on the comp but will post more thoughts later.

Indiana · #3 10-04-2005, 10:46 AM

Tuds,

As you know I am pushing the over pretty hard this weekend. Actually I do agree that Castillo is the tougher fighter but Chico has heart and what if he changes up his style? If he fights this one like he did that last Casamayor fight with lots of boxing and little slugging don't you feel that Chico will come out on top? Either way, I see this over as the best bet around right now. I just don't see either fighter going down early.

Indy

Tuds75 · #4 10-04-2005, 02:09 PM

Indy

Your points are well taken, but I read an article where Chico already admitts he likes to "go into war" with other fighters and is not afraid to do so with Castillo again (this could be posturing). That is what he feels comfortable doing. It is fighting style and like you said in another post "a leopard can't change it's spots". In the first fight he does stay outside for the first couple of rounds, but then he gets hit a few times and reverts back to what he is comfortable, the brawling style. Chico is a very good fighter, but so is Castillo and I think he can lure Chico into another brawl, with different results this time.

These two fighters should not be having a rematch, it is GREAT for boxing fans and the sports, but fights like these two had in their first bout takes years off careers and change fighters. I don't expect this fight to be as good as the first (pretty hard to top the first fight), a semi-let down if you will, but Castillo pulls out a victory, probabaly SD or close UD, and then they do it again in March. It is usually the 3rd fight in a trilogy that is best (ex. Ali/Frazier and Bowe/Holyfield, and Barrera/Morrales) so that fight will be another amazing show.

Anybody plan on betting boxing OVER round bets, make sure to read my other post.

Tuds

Indiana · #5 10-04-2005, 02:14 PM

Well Chico was very badly beaten up before pulling off that suprise victory last time. If Goosen is dumb enough to let him come back with the same style then I think that Castillo wins as well. Even still, I think the over bet has a really good chance to come in.

Indy

null · #6 10-04-2005, 05:42 PM

Is this fight on HBO or pay per view? HBO I hope. I took your advice and bet the over 9.5 a while ago.

Indiana · #7 10-04-2005, 05:46 PM

showtime pay per view this time around.

Indy

Tuds75 · #8 10-05-2005, 05:50 PM

I actually watched their first fight on a DVD of Pacman/Morrales and it was a top 5 fights of the year. It is a crazy fight. Arce came out throwing bombs and connected early and that i think changed the figth. Hussien was thrown off this game plan. He had to be more defensive to keep from being KO'ed. Hussien came back and actully hurt Arce and had him on the verge of stoppage. Hussien landed straights and jabs, while Arce landed hooks and haymakers. Since Hussien is a skilled fighter, I think in a rematch he will be well aware of Arce's hooks and wild shots, while landing more clean straights. When Arce RUNS out of his corner to greet Hussien with a flurry, Hussien will be prepared this time.Hussien's shots did do some real damage on Arce. Arce is also a bleeder. The bridge of his nose was split against Hussien. That cut almost stopped the fight and Arce was cut on the nose in his next fight as well.So he has history of bleeding. Hussien lands straights, opens up Arce, avoids his wild punches and get a stoppage late. The refs and ring side doctors will not hesitate one second to stop this fight if their is damage to a fighter.

Hussien is about 3-1 dog in this fight. This is a great price. He should be about +150 to +175, and even that seems a little high. This a very good dog bet to make at a great price.

Enjoy the fights

Tuds

Sadat X · #9 10-05-2005, 06:40 PM

Based on the first fight, I really think Corrales is a better tactical fighter and will cruise if he doesn't insist on standing toe-to-toe with Castillo again. He should be able to out-box Castillo and I'm sure that's what his camp is telling him too.

Either way, I can't wait for this one - should be a great fight.

Indiana · #10 10-05-2005, 06:46 PM

That's my feeling. If Corrales does come out slugging like last time then our over bet is not as strong, although its still better than a coin flip to come in. Prolly better than the needed odds to cover the -130 price. But if he comes out boxing more like I think Goosen will make him then its a pure steal bet. This is like calling all ins with AKs, u are at worst a coinflip and at best a powerhouse. In the end its a very nice +EV.

Indy