Close call - AT GutShot

[numeri]

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The odds of your completing your gut shot on the turn were about 10.5:1 and your reward was 6.75 bets for your 1 bet risk.

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Or you can look at the odds. You're offered 4.75:1. If we discount our A outs to 1.5, we have 5.5 outs, and need ~7.5:1 to call. Therefore, we need to make up ~1.75BB every time to make this call worth it. 2BB is the most we'll make, so we certainly can't expect it every time. Reasons:

1) You won't always get bet into when an A flops.
2) You won't always win if you hit. (Think J8, A8, etc.)
3) You won't always get called if you raise.

Either way, we get easy turn fold.

[WalkAmongUs]

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I have him on Kx( Kj screws me ) but i dont think its this.

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This is exactly why your A outs would be discounted down to 1.5 outs at best.

Fold on the flop.

[sean c]

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Discount your outs and fold.

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Just to expand on this, you can't be 100% sure he has a king. He could have a jack, so you can't count your Aces as full outs.

But even counting aces as full outs you don't have implied odds to make this call.

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With a paired board he shouldn't even be counting his queen outs as full outs.

[Highn]

Very easy fold imo. You're barely getting the odds to call with implied odds, and that's without discounting the Ace outs (he could have A8 or any Jack, not likely but need to take it into account imo).

p.s. I love your title [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Villan is: 49/2.8/.70

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero wonders if he can make this call.



I have him on Kx(Kj screws me) but i dont think its this.

A - 3 outs,
Q - 4 outs.
7 outs needing 5.6:1 im getting 4.75:1 + Implied.
Can i make this call or is it -EV?

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Well, I caution the reader that this is the first time I've tried to do an expectation calculation outside of reading it in a book, but I'll give it a try:

I assume the following:
- 5.5 outs (1.5 outs for Ace and 4 outs for Queen)
- With 5.5 outs, you win approximately 12% of the time and lose 88% of the time.
- You call the turn and fold river every time you're U/I, making a loss of 1 BB every time you lose.
- You call the turn and get 2 BB on river from opponent every time you hit your draws, making a profit of 6.75 BB every time you win (4.75 in pot + 2 on river) (A big assumption, I think: I don't think you always win 2 bets on the river, so this number should be discounted somewhat; in any event, I use this assumption for sake of convenience) .

To measure expectation, we use the following formula which adds your wins and losses over 100 hands:

(12 wins x 6.75 BB profit) + (88 losses x 1 BB loss) = -7 BB

So, it looks like it is -EV of 7BB to call on the turn.

NOTE: I hope I'm calculating the 6.75 profit correctly. I did NOT include your 1 BB turn call in the "profit".

What about your outs on the flop? You got maybe 6 outs there.

Turn: Your 6 outs might be too optimistic now. I'd give you about ~5.5-5.

Technically, I don't think you had odds to call the flop and you really didn't for the turn.

nh

[aces_dad]

Your conclusion that it's -7BB is for 100 cases of this decision, you also need to divide the total by 100 to get the specific EV of one case of this decision ... though for decision making purposes anything clearly -EV is not worth doing.

and you did mention it though it is important, you should probably reduce the 2BB won on the river to something like 1.5 since you don't always get a raise called, don't always win with A's, get bet into with your straight, etc.

[Weatherhead03]

Your hand cannot draw to the nuts now so discount and fold.

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Your conclusion that it's -7BB is for 100 cases of this decision, you also need to divide the total by 100 to get the specific EV of one case of this decision ... though for decision making purposes anything clearly -EV is not worth doing.

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Ah, yes, thank you. So, I should have said EV was -.7BB per hand, also keeping in mind the further considerations you mentioned.

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Your hand cannot draw to the nuts now so discount and fold.

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