#31
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Re: an \"expert\'s\" comments on online poker
What a moron this guy is.
[ QUOTE ] Here is an example of how the gambling house will always win all the money from all of the players. Five players sit-in on an online poker game each with a $20 bankroll for a total at the website table of $100. Let’s say the average pot is $10 and the rake is 5% or 50 cents per hand. Let’s say 200 hands are played which does not take that long. After 200 hands, that 50 cents rake per hand totals $100 which is the entire amount that all of the players started with at the website table. Of course not all of the players go broke at the exact same time and fresh money can come into the game. But sooner or later each gambler will eventually lose their $20 bankroll every time without exception. If bringing in $20 more, that will also eventually be lost. Every amount brought in will eventually be lost through continued play. Those are the facts in a nutshell. Any honest mathematician, statistician, or numbers expert who understands the game of poker, would not dispute the example in this paragraph. [/ QUOTE ] Not only is he making huge assumptions ($10 dollar pots for $100 at the table as an average pot size) but his logic is fatally flawed. One of these players could be better than his opponents by more than 5% and continually beat them out of money. New opponents will come and that player can still win money. Also there are bonuses and rakeback programs that significantly reduce this rake. This man probably has good intentions but he's uninformed about online poker nonetheless. |
#32
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Re: an \"expert\'s\" comments on online poker
[ QUOTE ]
Here is an example of how the gambling house will always win all the money from all of the players. Five players sit-in on an online poker game each with a $20 bankroll for a total at the website table of $100. Let’s say the average pot is $10 and the rake is 5% or 50 cents per hand. Let’s say 200 hands are played which does not take that long. After 200 hands, that 50 cents rake per hand totals $100 which is the entire amount that all of the players started with at the website table. Of course not all of the players go broke at the exact same time and fresh money can come into the game. But sooner or later each gambler will eventually lose their $20 bankroll every time without exception. If bringing in $20 more, that will also eventually be lost. Every amount brought in will eventually be lost through continued play. Those are the facts in a nutshell. Any honest mathematician, statistician, or numbers expert who understands the game of poker, would not dispute the example in this paragraph. [/ QUOTE ] From the first sentence to the next in the bold is where the logical fallacy occurs. |
#33
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Re: an \"expert\'s\" comments on online poker
He assumes over the long run people will just trade pots back and forth and nobody will do more winning than losing long term.
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#34
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Re: an \"expert\'s\" comments on online poker
Wait. Where are these places that the top pros play that don't charge rake?
I want to go there. |
#35
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I actually got an answer from this guy!
After reading that little note, I send an e-mail to him. Very polite, not disaggreeing with his goals, just telling him he was wrong. Got a response the very next day, kinda funny and pathetic. Here is my e-mail and his response:
Just read a short article by Mr. Katz re online poker. Unfortunately, Mr. Katz doesn't know what he is talking about. There are plenty of good reasons not to gamble. Gambling destroys thousands of lives and negatively influences the lives of millions more. However, making things up and/or lying about certain types of gambling is, in my opinion, counter productive to the cause of gambling prevention. What Mr. Katz's piece offers is an incentive for people to find out more about online poker. Why? Because it is so obviously wrong. How do I know it's wrong? I support my family by playing online poker, and have done so for several years, as do many of my aquaintances. Look, you can't just go around saying "you can't beat the rake!". Whether or not the rake can be beaten depends on the size of the rake relative to the game, and your skill relative to the other players in it. No matter how noble your motives, the ends don't justify the means, and in these case the means are counter productive to the desired end. Just thought you should know Some of your comments are good and that is appreciated. But unless you PROVE your claims of winning, anyone stating that they are winning money in the long-run playing online poker, is only a rumor. Don't take it personal - I say that to EVERYONE. You probably realize that gambling income is taxable and so you have paid taxes on the money. So simply do the following. Post in a public forum, not to me because anyone can photoshop items, do it in a public forum whereby everyone can see it including the IRS which also canvases the internet looking for tax cheats. No one should ever publicly post a false tax return. To the best of my knowledge this is a federal offense. So...post copies of your last years federal tax return. Post two years since you said "several years." Also post copies of your credit card transactions and documentation from the gambling websites regarding deposits and withdrawals. Before posting though, take all this documentation to a very reputable accounting firm and have all the information audited. They will matchup the documentation with your bank statements, etc. And also post a signed letter from this accounting firm regarding the audit and the accuracy of your documentation. Since you've been paying your taxes and have filed and previously calculated all these figures anyway, this should all be quite easy for you to quickly hand over to the accounting firm. The audit will probably cost you around $2,000 but since you are making all this money playing online poker, a couple thousand bucks should be peanuts to you. Everyone who I have asked to do this has refused despite the simplicity. If you want to do it...fine, e-mail me back with the public website info after it is posted and of course I'll take a look at it. If you don't want to do it...fine, but the article stands as fact. We both know that there is not any formula for "proving" that online poker can be beat. The best hand doesn't always win - it can be bluffed out. So again...the only way to prove claims of winning money would be showing documented and audited proof of this income. You made the claims, so prove it! Best Regards, Steve |
#36
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Re: an \"expert\'s\" comments on online poker
Which casinos in real life is rake free? In Sweden we have to pay more rake/tipp in real casinos than I have to pay online..
Please tell me so I can go there!!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
#37
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Re: I actually got an answer from this guy!
[ QUOTE ]
So...post copies of your last years federal tax return. Post two years since you said "several years." Also post copies of your credit card transactions and documentation from the gambling websites regarding deposits and withdrawals. Before posting though, take all this documentation to a very reputable accounting firm and have all the information audited. They will matchup the documentation with your bank statements, etc. And also post a signed letter from this accounting firm regarding the audit and the accuracy of your documentation. Since you've been paying your taxes and have filed and previously calculated all these figures anyway, this should all be quite easy for you to quickly hand over to the accounting firm. The audit will probably cost you around $2,000 but since you are making all this money playing online poker, a couple thousand bucks should be peanuts to you. Everyone who I have asked to do this has refused despite the simplicity. [/ QUOTE ] Ladies and gentlemen, we have full idiot status. By this logic, I can go around saying Brad Pitt has AIDS, and the only way I have to stop is if someone sends me a vial of his blood and a negative lab test. |
#38
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Re: an \"expert\'s\" comments on online poker
I can't believe I just read "most of that crap". It would be true if losing players stopped playing the game.
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#39
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Re: I actually got an answer from this guy!
[ QUOTE ]
So...post copies of your last years federal tax return. Post two years since you said "several years." Also post copies of your credit card transactions and documentation from the gambling websites regarding deposits and withdrawals. Before posting though, take all this documentation to a very reputable accounting firm and have all the information audited. They will matchup the documentation with your bank statements, etc. And also post a signed letter from this accounting firm regarding the audit and the accuracy of your documentation. Since you've been paying your taxes and have filed and previously calculated all these figures anyway, this should all be quite easy for you to quickly hand over to the accounting firm. The audit will probably cost you around $2,000 but since you are making all this money playing online poker, a couple thousand bucks should be peanuts to you. [/ QUOTE ] If he is so sure his statements are true, make him pay for the audit. He even says his information is 'fact'. I'd bet there may be a few here that would be willing to have their accountant post a letter stating the truth, so long as personal information is not divulged (SS#, names, etc). However given this, would this idiot even accept the word/certification of a CPA? That way he can prove his thoughts and call us all a bunch of degenerate gambling liers and be even more happy with himself. Last time I checked we are considered 'innocent' (not lieing) before proven guilty. |
#40
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Re: an \"expert\'s\" comments on online poker
[ QUOTE ]
geez..... makes no sense.....they take a rake in a casino too (plus a tip)....is he trying to say there is no such thing as a professional poker player? Doyle Brunson, Phil Ivey, D. Negraneau, etc....they "can't possibly win money playing poker b/c of a rake?" Everyone (without exception) who claims to be up at online poker, is lying? What a whackjob.... [/ QUOTE ] I haven't read past this response, so forgive me if someone already stated this: Imagine everyone who was currently playing on party poker, kept playing on party poker until they went broke, and no one else was allowed to enter the game, and no one was allowed to bring any money into the game from other incomes other than what was in their current neteller balance or whatever. Now you can start to see that eventually the house must win ever last penny of money. In this respect, poker is somewhat similar (but not exactly) a ponzi scheme. Anyways, this doesn't matter on a practical level, because on a practical level, fish keep coming, busting, and bringing money in from outside of poker to do it with. Professionals do exist, even in the long term. All that stuff about mathematicians and whatnot doesn't matter though, as it supposes that both players have unlimited money. --Dave. Oh yeah, and I guess eventually one guy would be left with a ton of money on party, whoever was best... but in the process a lot of the money on the server would disappear to rake. |
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