Forgive me...I'm a newbie.

4ever · #1 10-04-2005, 12:56 PM

I'm a Very green sports bettor. So green that I just made my first one. I've been reading the mateiral on this site like crazy and I'm begining to better understand the whole idea. I feel very stupid posting this but I remember my teacher telling me that the only dumb question is the one gone un-asked. I plan on researching all future bets but I made this one just to give it a go. My question is this: I just made a bet on Bodog that I think is simply that the Padres will win. The description is "(901) San Diego Padres +1½ (-115) Tue@1:05p" I understand what the -115 is now, but I just want to know if I'm correct in assuming that I simply bet that they will win the game and if this happens, I risked 5.00 to win 4.35. Any help would be appreciated.

scott8 · #2 10-04-2005, 12:59 PM

The bet you made is that the Padres will not lose by more than a run.

If you bet the Padres to win, the line would be +185 or so.

You win your bet if the Padres win or if the Cards win by 1.

Jackmama · #3 10-04-2005, 01:00 PM

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"(901) San Diego Padres +1½ (-115)

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This bet is you putting down 11.50 to win 10.00 (or the equivalent relationship, which is your $5 to win $4.35), that the San Diego Padres will not lose by more than 1.5 runs. As long as San Diego wins, or loses by only one, you win. If you win, you will get 9.35 back.

4ever · #4 10-04-2005, 01:05 PM

Wow..ok so I was way off. Is this generally a bad bet, should I have gone with the +185 option?

playersare · #5 10-04-2005, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Wow..ok so I was way off. Is this generally a bad bet, should I have gone with the +185 option?

[/ QUOTE ]
it's definitely harder to calculate the precise value of 1.5 baseball runs in relation to the money line. sometimes you just have to see what the market says and then anticipate where the price is going to move.

in your case, it looks like you got an excellent deal because there was a feeding frenzy on SD +1.5 a few minutes before the game, driving the line as high as -142 and closing around -138. you beat a lot of "professional" big bettors to the same number and theoretically have the best of it. either scenario of a strong pitching duel, or carpenter coughing again (18 ER last 3 starts) strongly favor the Pods run line. good luck

4ever · #6 10-05-2005, 08:19 PM

I have a better understanding thanks to this post and appreciate the help. I didn't win by the way. The Padres decided to play like Little League rejects. They try hard.

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you beat a lot of "professional" big bettors to the same number and theoretically have the best of it.

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I guess I got lucky here. I'm happy with the bet. It seems that even if you push every edge (assuming that you have no profound inside information) that the sports betting gig will be very tough to beat. I'm reminded of my card counting attempts in Vegas while playing blackjack. I never got very good at it but learned that even if I did, and became extremely proficient, I would only have at the best time, a 2% advantage. This means it would take many hands and hours to come out ahead. I don't think that Im going to be able to beat this doing it as a hobbie, even taking only good bets. Who knows?