Turn Donk 3-bet hee-bee-gee-bees

naphand · #1 10-02-2005, 12:18 PM

TABLE: I have not been here long - this is my 3rd orbit. Thus far (based on this small hand-count) UTG is V$IP25 PFR10, a little better than average for the table. Poster has just sat in.

$5/$10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Naphand calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Naphand raises, MP3 folds, CO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Naphand [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop I am not a big fan of raising, AJo is not very pretty in this spot IMO and I am content to let the flop deliver or quit.

My read is UTG is either trying to stop the free-card play, has a decent hand and wants me to raise to confront CO with 2 cold or has picked up a flush draw. A monster hand surely CR this spot. I want to raise CO, who most likely has a draw, but getting 3-bet would be ugly.

Is my best plan raise and fold to a 3-bet?

Raising seems the best option against most scenarios, but I may fold a Q that calls here and calls again on the River. If UTG is on a flush he may bet a missed draw on the River. I do not consider it at all likely I get 3-bet by anything I beat.

The answer seems obvious to me but, I am suspect that there may be some justification in just calling?

Carmine · #2 10-02-2005, 12:36 PM

I think your villian was waiting for a non- [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn card. If you say he is decent I don't think he would lead with just a draw risking to pay a premium. I think you are looking at A8 then A3 that is making sure he doesn't miss bets by a check-through and hoping to 3-bet. You didn't raise PF so he may be putting you on a weak Ace that makes a turn check possible.

naphand · #3 10-02-2005, 01:06 PM

Am I correct to assume you are happy with call-call?

The reason I mention the flush-draw semi-bluff is that I see a LOT of this kind of thing in many of the $5/$10 games. Granted a portion of this is from LAG players, but there are a number of tricky players who will make odd/calculated moves.

It is early days at the table, I have limited reads and I doubt the other players have noticed much about me either except I am playing quite tight.

I have to include the possibility of a donk semi-bluff, at least until I know better. I also think it is too little info to put UTG on A3/A8 yet, this is a good pot and worth making a play for.

skiier04 · #4 10-02-2005, 01:08 PM

Is it bad if Im raising this preflop??

bigalt · #5 10-02-2005, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is my best plan raise and fold to a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

While you have outs to catch up to 2 pair, I don't really see him 3-betting those very often without AQ which it seems like he would have raised preflop.

I think he's either picked up a flush+gutshot, flush+pair (neither of which he's 3-betting, but he sees two people between you two to call bets), or else already had a set and he's trying to trap people for bets instead of driving out the draws.

Even if CO has a queen he probably has 5 outs to beat you, so it's to your advantage to charge him for those and flush draws.

Thus, I like the raise/fold to the 3-bet plan.

Entity · #6 10-02-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it bad if Im raising this preflop??

[/ QUOTE ]

No. It's also not bad if you're limping with it. Really depends on the quality/type of the limpers who precede you and if you know anything about the guys to act after you.

Rob

Carmine · #7 10-02-2005, 02:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Am I correct to assume you are happy with call-call?

I have to include the possibility of a donk semi-bluff, at least until I know better. I also think it is too little info to put UTG on A3/A8 yet, this is a good pot and worth making a play for.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case, yes, I go call/call. If this player is donking he is doing it into 4 other players which makes a draw more remote IMO. The CO may be on a draw and I would like to charge him, but I feel the scales are tilted that I am drawing also.

I do agree that there is alot of this turn donking going on latley and I cannot understand the mentality behind it. When it is obvious the flop aggressor has a strong made hand, why do they risk charging themselves to draw and you are not going to fold the made hand ever on a blank. I would love if someone can explain this to me, maybe I'm missing something.

Harv72b · #8 10-02-2005, 02:45 PM

A VPIP 25 player is probably not limping A3s from UTG. A PFR10 player is not limping AQo from UTG. A good player is not calling (twice) on the flop with 33. So, either UTG slowplayed the flop waiting for a non-spade turn card, or he's making a really weird move here. I would definitely not rule out another AJ, or even an ATs that figures you would've raised preflop with a better kicker.

So the question becomes whether or not to raise; CO already called 2 cold on the flop, and he's getting correct odds to call 2 cold on the turn if he's holding a 4-flush. OTOH, you are probably not being 3-bet by any hand that you beat, so if you feel comfortable raising & folding to the 3-bet, that seems like the best line--no use giving CO even better odds to draw to his flush if you are best/tied.

naphand · #9 10-02-2005, 04:29 PM

I actually forgot when making the post that UTG has 4 players after him on the Turn, rather than just me and CO, so he cannot just be wanting me to raise to kick CO.

[ QUOTE ]
A VPIP 25 player is probably not limping A3s from UTG. A PFR10 player is not limping AQo from UTG. A good player is not calling (twice) on the flop with 33.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly - although we must remember by read (part-observed/part stats) is not based on many hands, he could realistically be somewhat looser/stupider.

A8s is a possibility and 88 for that matter, both waiting for the Turn non-spade and hoping to get a call or two plus a 3-bet if I raise. A weaker Ace with the flush draw is also likely IMO, and for value against 4 callers.

I have to say that in these games I tend not to make the free-card play with a draw as it just does not work enough (player-dependent) to be worth it. Many players automatically put you on a draw if you raise the flop (board dependent) and a big hand if you call flop/raise Turn, so the donk could be a counter to my "obvious" free-card play.

In this case, I just called after forcing myself not to auto-raise (my preferred line against donkers, certainly in SH games), then immediately hated it as I realised a 3-bet would make for a very safe fold.

The lack of any substantive read made this awkward and the weak-tight in me got to the mouse first... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Carmine · #10 10-02-2005, 06:00 PM

I agree also that A3s is less likely but I don't think we can discard it (that's why I put him on A8 first). 88 does need to be considered, but that hand is more likely to have raised PF first in and to maybe be more aggressive on the flop.

If he has 88 were done and raise/fold the turn is fine. A8/A3 however we have 6&9 outs against(actually 5&7 if we think players are on draws)so by just calling we get to see SD and the opportunity to hit some decent outs. We also can't give the draws poor odds and there are no free cards being given. Let's not forget the very small chance of a bluff-3-bet that we eliminate.

It seems to me that just calling is the best play even if it sounds weak.