FPP re-buy super to $500,000 guaranteed after break

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The FPP re-buys are Turbo. No real read on SB apart from last hand.

I c-bet t800 into the t1,500 pot. SB CR all-in for and additional t1,320. There's t4,320 in the pot, so I'm getting 3.3:1 on my OESD, plenty to call.

I miss my str8 and he takes it down with KJo.

Cards happen, but ... knowing there's a good chance I end up with half of my chips in the pot on a draw most likely to 8 outs (effectively costing me t2,120 for a shot at winning t3,620 or 1.7:1), would it have been prudent NOT to c-bet? Seeing the turn for free, folding to his (likely) bet, and moving on with t4,900, still above average and an M of 9?

I'm trying to figure out the break even point for how often villain needs to fold to make the continuation-bet profitable for me (I'm using approximate values, and I assume I have to hit my str8 to win if I'm CRd):

He folds X% of the time, and I end up with a total of t6,300
He calls (100-X)% of the time: My EV here (twodimes.net) is .32, so I end up with approximately t4,600 on the average.

X*6,300 – (1-X)*4,600 = 0 for break even, or X = 42.

So he has to fold 42% of the time to make the c-bet profitable. That's a LOT!

I am ready to conclude that the best strategy here is to check after on the flop, and fold the turn if I dont hit (and if I'm bet into).

Oppinions?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

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After thinking about everything (before I even read this particular post, honest to goodness), I think that a check behind would be good there. If a 9 comes, he will lead into you and you take out his stack, and if an ace comes, he is likely to make a bet too and kick himself for slowplaying his hand when he gets raised all in/you call his all in. Plus, there is the odd chance that he doesn't go all in on the turn if you check behind, and gives you a good price to see one more card for your straight.

Good post, I like hands that get me thinking, alot of hands seem to have fairly easy decisions, this one has a close one. My first instinct here is to make a continuation bet which would pot commit me, and that isn't the right choice.

I learned something. Good times.