T9 on JJ778 board

Lmn55d · #1 10-02-2005, 02:11 PM

Villain is 52/2.5 with AF of .6 after only 40 hands. You guys play any streets differently?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP calls, CO folds, SB folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Spicymoose · #2 10-02-2005, 02:20 PM

Check fold the flop. Given how you played it I think I check call the river.

sations · #3 10-02-2005, 02:24 PM

to hit you're gut shot then to fold is what I don't understand. It seems to me like you only had 4 outs, you hit one and then fold? Not sure but when I see this I usually put him on an A or middle pair 10's 9's 8's. If you are scared of the boat then I would c/f the turn. But definately have to call the river if you went that far.

Lmn55d · #4 10-02-2005, 02:25 PM

do I have no folding equity on the turn?

Lmn55d · #5 10-02-2005, 06:47 PM

I think this hand is interesting. I'm hoping for some more replies.

toss · #6 10-02-2005, 06:55 PM

Do you really think you'll fold what looks to be a calling station 33% of the time on this kind of board? I really don't think he'll fold often enough.

Lmn55d · #7 10-02-2005, 07:23 PM

where are you getting 33% from? If you are talking about the turn bet, from an immediate folding equity standpoint my bet is getting 3:1 meaning he needs to fold 25% of the time. If we assume that sometimes I will improve to the best hand he needs to fold even less.

toss · #8 10-02-2005, 07:29 PM

Sorry 25% of the time. I still don't think what seems to be a callingstation will fold that much here.

Lmn55d · #9 10-02-2005, 07:34 PM

You might be right, I can't say for certain. The thing is my hand will improve and be good a certain percentage of the time and I will get paid off by his A/K high so I'd say this value would be more like 20% or something. I think a ton of people in this game peel the flop with XX where X is any card and fold the turn. The 7 is a great card for me for a few reasons:

1. It makes it less likely he has a 7 (33% less likely).
2. It makes him less likely to try and draw to a pair.

Yes, A high will usually call me down now, but A high was calling down anyway as soon as the flop came JJx. I think this is a profitable turn bet because of the other random hands that would fold. If someone is holding 89 or even another 9T, they probably will fold fearing they are drawing dead.

Roy6 · #10 10-02-2005, 08:43 PM

I think this is perfect. You had the folding equity and it's very unlikely villain will raise here with an inferior hand on the river.