NEB at So Miss, was this a good bet?

[fatherpimp]

med,

sportsbetting is fundamentally different than poker; in poker, insofar as you can put everyone on a hand, you can calculate your exact chances of winning the hand; nobody can tell you what the exact chances of the 2nd half total being 17 would be; ask 5 different cappers and you'll get 5 different answers probably.

i watched the whole game, and personally, i wouldve thought that the 2nd half total wouldve been between 17-20; maybe that makes your bet a risky one, but im glad you won.

[medloH]

father,

You're right. But, what you could do is look at a sample of games from the last few years that had similar over/under lines and see how many fell right on 17 in the second half. I'm just wondering if 10% of games like this end up on 17 in the second half. Anyone know of a place to get data on this kind of thing?

[Wildbill]

I wouldn't put much into it, college games are just too varied to make predictions based on past results. Also remember 37 as a game total is one of the lowest you will ever see for colleges, especially with the OT rule. Even relatively low scoring teams will have totals around 47 or more. That should tell you that 17 isn't going to hit 10% of the time in the NCAA, but of course these circumstances were different.