KK 3 bets the turn!

[Mathieu]

I agree that there are a lot of players that would play 22 and 77 exactly like villain here. Especially in good Loose passive games [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

The player I was facing did not appear to be that loose. I thought that if he would play a mid pair against me, he would likely isolate me to get it heads up since he was aggressive. I was not sure about that, so in my analysis I gave villain about 50% chance of playing 77 this way (cold calling preflop). I thought this was like removing one 7 from the deck, so it would reduce his possible set combinations to 1, but I was wrong. It is more like 3 ways x 0.50 = 1.5 way. I thought 22 was really unlikely, but I could have perhaps given it some low probability.

The main reason why I 3 bet this hand was that villain appeared to be really straight forward on the flop. When he had a hand or a draw he would show aggression, otherwise he would peel or fold. So his raise on the turn mostly matched semi-bluffing hands that he would raise occasionnally, or monster hands that he would rarely cold call pre-flop. I also had to give some probability to a strong top pair hand like AJ which may wait for the turn to raise since it is in good shape vs big aces that I could be raising with.