Looking to Stake Online Players!

[operaman]

not to quibble, but i would say for the average player:
(I agree the following numbers are quite speculative.)
8h +2000 =winning player chance of ~1/12 (in agreement)
8h -2000 =winning player chance of ~1/150 (not in agreement)
Note: only %3 of online players are winning players over a multi-year period, %5 for single year as I understand from
somewhat reliable sources. I also understand 25-50 is not a normal stake so the ratios may be different as regards to %3 and %5. It seems winning players win at a particular table about %60-%70 of the time. 8 hours is two sessions generaly. so the odds of a winning player losing 2 sessions is about %15 of the time. Even winning players go on tilt so there should be a clumping effect so lets say %20.
%3x.2=%.6 according to my way to thinking. I am assuming a 1k win or loss is typical for a 4 hour session at 25-50. (+200 -200 is a little more than typical for 5-10.)

[gila]

SO, you are tying to tell me, after 320 hands (40 hands an hour X 8 hours) you can have a extremely high indication that the guy up $2000 at the 25/50 table is a better player than the other guy, at the same table, that is stuck for two large? huh. I've never been able to see that in 320 hands, but then, I only play 5/10 and 10/20 so maybe that is my problem. Or maybe I just suck because I often go through 40BB swings, in both directions, several times a day and go through 100BB swings often. But, if you can tell to a high degree if somebody is a winner/loser after 320 hands, or 3,000 for that matter, all power to ya. Good luck.

[wonderwes]

I could use about three fifdee.

[ QUOTE ]
I could use about three fifdee.

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I need a "I just spat coke all over my keyboard" emote. IJSCOAMK will have to do.

NH

[operaman]

when you set at the table gilla how long does it take for you to evaluate a player as winner or loser. How many players on pt do you have more than 500 hands on? Most people place the stat of how much a player is up or down on the overlay software. If it were meaningless you wouldn't see that, it seems to me. We as poker players make judgements on players at the drop of a hat, because we rarely get stat. meaningfull data.

p.s. I wonder how many hands we have played against each other? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[gila]

[ QUOTE ]
when you set at the table gilla how long does it take for you to evaluate a player as winner or loser. How many players on pt do you have more than 500 hands on? Most people place the stat of how much a player is up or down on the overlay software. If it were meaningless you wouldn't see that, it seems to me. We as poker players make judgements on players at the drop of a hat, because we rarely get stat. meaningfull data.

p.s. I wonder how many hands we have played against each other? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

It takes as few as one hand to tell if somebody is a loser, telling if they are a winner would take many more hands. For me, at least, the assumption of their winning/losing ability has nothing to do with how much they are up or down(b/c of the very fact that I don't have enough hands on them). If they are cold calling raises often with middling hands, if they are letting the BB in for one bet instead of three-bettting from the rear, if they are playing any ace, from anywhere, or playing any two suited cards, etc. etc. These are the things that tell me there is a fish present. As for stats, I don't waste space with what they are up/down. I would much rather see their aggresion, their PFR, their VPIP, and really, anything else besides what they are ahead or behind. The only benifit I could see in showing these stats is to get a sense of flow and rhythm but even then, they will not make my front page.

As a side note, just out of curiosity, I looked up the biggest winners on my database. This is all for 5/10//10/20 six max tables and all in the last two months (about 90,000 hands). Here is the top five's VPIP/PFR numbers. They all have between 100 and 351 hands.

1st duh
2nd 60/27
3rd 48/23
4th 26/21
5th 42/13


You see four probable long-term winners. I see, to the best of my ability, one fish, two very bad players, one decent player, and a mirror.

I will claim the top player i've played against out of my 90,000 hands, the 60/27 guy, the man, the machine, the big money winner, is a HUGH loser. You?

[operaman]

You are looking at it all wrong. We all have swings of +-40 units in 8 table hours but frequency and DURATION are dif. for the winning player.)

Lets say the odds of observing you for a RANDOM 8 hour period on a -40 unit down turn = X

divided by

the odds of a typical losing player being observed to have a -40 unit downturn during a RANDOM 8 hour period= Y.

You imply x/y is close to 1, but there is no way these numbers are close to 1. You are focusing on the frequency and not the duration.

If you don't believe me take a small sample yourself. Take your first 4 tables for 1 hour and -10 bb. do the calculation yourself. Most of the time x will be much lower than y.

Ill give you the last word, as I am done with this line.
We can agree we have a different way of thinking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
(btw a -100 unit swing with 8 table hours is really unusual. )