10/20 On the Edge

[DMBFan23]

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bet the river.

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I dont think I m good anywhere near 55% when called. I also dont see better hands folding and I open myself to a bluffraise. I doubt they are capable of it but you never know at 10/20.
Please explain why you wanna bet here.

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remember, when you are OUT of position, the 55% metric for river value bets does not apply.

basically you're comparing the EV of all your options for any decision. when you bet in position on the river, you are comparing the EV of betting to the EV of checking, which is 0. therefore, you have to be good 55% of the time to ensure you are a winner on that bet.

when you're out of position, you don't have that luxury...you can check fold, check call, check raise, and bet. let's assume we've determind that check raising is inferior to betting (there is material in HPFAP and TOP to help one think about this). there are still two other options:

1) we can check fold. EV 0.
2) we can check call. the EV of this will be determined by the opponent's hand range when he bets, and the size of the pot.
3) we can bet. the EV of this is determined by the hand range he calls with, the hand range he folds, and the size of the pot.

2 and 3 are very linked. against a very few opponents, the hands he will bet are so many that we actually make more by checking and letting him bluff, even with a strong hand. the more common opponent calls with more hands than he bets. and then some opponents are just weat tight bitches.

so we have to decide, if I check and he bets, should I call?

if the answer is no,
then decide whether you can bluff him (i.e., he is very weak and will only bet the nuts, so you can't call, but he will fold a lot too). if you can bluff him, bet. if not, check fold.

if the answer is yes,
then you have a profitable call according to his betting range and pot odds. now decide whether he bets with more hands than he calls with. if he does, then you should check and call. if instead he calls with more hands than he bets with, then you have a more favorable situation betting - you already had a profitable check call, and he will call with even MORE hands than that, so you should bet for 'value'. here value is relative...you are a winner COMPARED to check calling, and both options are better than check folding. notably in large pots, this can happen even when you are well below being a 55% favorite to win when called.

notice how complicated being out of position is compared to being in position, and I didn't even get into either you (when you are OOP) or your opponent (when you are in position) checkraising...

[DMBFan23]

damn you Jeff.

I prefer to go for the c/r on the flop here. The river is an easy bet.

[Lmn55d]

go for a checkraise with 2 passive opponents left to act?

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I prefer to go for the c/r on the flop here. The river is an easy bet.

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I completely agree. River is an easy bet. However, I think a checkraise attempt in this situation would be horrendous. You only have two players to act behind you. There was no preflop raise. The players are both passive. This pot gets checked through too often and you just gave all of your opponents infinite odds to draw out on your likely best hand. A pair of 8's is extremely vulerable and you need to lead this flop.

All a checkraise accomplishes is to pump up the pot when you have a very vulnerable hand. If the bet comes from the first player, it is likely to get called by one or both of the others. If it is the last player, it is again likely to be called before you raise. This has to be a bet nearly 100% of the time.

Lozing

[Jeff W]

DMBFann,

I think there is an easier way to illustrate the idea.

9 BB in the pot OOP HU on the river.

Lets say that 30% of the time you bet, you are called by a worse hand and 70% of the time you are called by a better hand.

If you check, your opponent will bet a better hand 70% of the time, check behind a worse hand 20% and bet a worse hand 10% of the time.

EV of bet compared to check-call= [-0.4] - [-0.6]= +0.2

Thus, we have a value bet even though we're best only 30% of the time when called.

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go for a checkraise with 2 passive opponents left to act?

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Yes. Hero's hand is very vulnerable, so the question is how best to protect it. On an 8 high board, 4 way, a bet from the blinds is probably going to get called in 3 places, give or take about zero places. Plus, checking allows you to dump your hand if there's a bet and raise before it gets back to you.

On the other hand, a c/r may allow you to drive out one or two or even all three opponents and represents a stronger hand, which increases your fold equity on the turn. If the flop does get checked through, which even with passive players doesn't happen all that much, it's not the end of the world. First, like I said, a flop bet wouldn't have thinned the field much anyway. And second, the absence of any betting on the flop reduces the size of the pot, which would make calling a turn bet a mistake for a player with a lower pair or a couple of overcards.

[DMBFan23]

yeah, that's what I was hinting at, but I like to spout a bunch of theory and not really use examples...

it's like that scene in the incredibles..."oh, man, you've got me monologuing...."

[irishpint]

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go for a checkraise with 2 passive opponents left to act?

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Yes. Hero's hand is very vulnerable, so the question is how best to protect it. On an 8 high board, 4 way, a bet from the blinds is probably going to get called in 3 places, give or take about zero places. Plus, checking allows you to dump your hand if there's a bet and raise before it gets back to you.

On the other hand, a c/r may allow you to drive out one or two or even all three opponents and represents a stronger hand, which increases your fold equity on the turn. If the flop does get checked through, which even with passive players doesn't happen all that much, it's not the end of the world. First, like I said, a flop bet wouldn't have thinned the field much anyway. And second, the absence of any betting on the flop reduces the size of the pot, which would make calling a turn bet a mistake for a player with a lower pair or a couple of overcards.

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ahhhhhh
bet the flop. we have no reason to think someone else will and we can't give a free card when we have a medium top pair. you're right, overcards will call the flop bet but that is life, we cannot do anything about it.