A hand on bubble to FT. Please help.

[wrongshui]

$3k guaranteed Freezeout... I was 1st or 2nd in chips for 3 hours... Playing solid aggressive.

Down to 14 Players, Im 2nd in chips awith 53k vs. an aggressive loose player, who has doubled up a few times on bad plays.

Blinds are at 800/1600. 7 handed.

I get 10s10c UTG+1 and raise pot (Around 6000), folded to player who goes All in over me for another 20k.

A win here, and Im about 15% chipleader. A fold, I'm still in 2nd. Your thoughts?

[locutus2002]

Given your image this is a fold.

Villain has to have a good idea of what your range is UTG+1, and your hand is at the bottom of it.

[AlphaWice]

What range do you put him on to RR all in?

[wrongshui]

Personally, 77-AK.

I was about 60% sure he had AK, or a sub pocket pair.

[locutus2002]

Hard to say without playing against him.

On the bubble, against the chip leader, against an UTG+1 pot raise, AA-JJ, AK, plus the Harrington 10%: which I might only give 5% here.

Villain doesn't want to see the flop even in position so I'm favoring AK,JJ,QQ.

[Rex Ruthless]

You're only in big trouble to 4 larger pairs, a slight coinflip favorite with all the variations of AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, KJ, QJ, a bigger favorite to Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx where x =<10, and a big favorite to the lower pocket pairs. This late in the tourney, I am willing to gamble since most of the reraise pushing hands you're still a favorite too and you're trying to win. Even if you lose, you still have lots of chips to play with relative to blinds. I cross my fingers and call.

[Rex Ruthless]

[ QUOTE ]
Hard to say without playing against him.

On the bubble, against the chip leader, against an UTG+1 pot raise, AA-JJ, AK, plus the Harrington 10%: which I might only give 5% here.

Villain doesn't want to see the flop even in position so I'm favoring AK,JJ,QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I read the original post as our hero having the villian covered. Right?

[locutus2002]

If you think 77 is in his range under these conditions it is an instacall as you are ahead of 77-99, behind jj-AA and a flip against overs (your slightly behind); there is a large overlay in the pot.

[wrongshui]

Thanks for the input guys...

I made the call, he had AKo, and spiked an A on the turn.

I get knocked down to barely under $30k, and go on to get out in 10th at the FT.

Gregor, word for word that was exactly what I was thinking....

This luckbox just kept getting his sub 50% hands to pay off for him.

[Rex Ruthless]

Those are the breaks - can't fault his all-in either with his stack IMO assuming he wants to win the whole thing. Better luck next time.